Bohemians WFC W 4–0 Lisburn Ladies W

Bohemians WFC W

FT

4 – 0

Lisburn Ladies W

3/24/2024

All-Island Cup - Women · Group Stage - 1Dalymount Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Bohemians WFC W69%

×Draw17%

Lisburn Ladies W14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bohemians WFC WExpected goals in this matchLisburn Ladies W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.54

1.08

Bohemians WFC W

2.54

Lisburn Ladies W

1.08

Bohemians WFC W creates 135% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 4 away

2.33

creates per match

1.00

1.17

allows per match

2.75

creates per match

Bohemians WFC W

2.33

Lisburn Ladies W

1.00

allows per match

Bohemians WFC W

1.17

Lisburn Ladies W

2.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bohemians WFC W+0.00on par

Lisburn Ladies W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bohemians WFC W ↓

Lisburn Ladies W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–17%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

70%30%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Bohemians WFC W or draw

86%

Bohemians WFC W or Lisburn Ladies W

83%

Draw or Lisburn Ladies W

31%

Winning margin

Bohemians WFC W wins by 2+

47%

Lisburn Ladies W wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Bohemians WFC W 1+ goals

92%

Bohemians WFC W 2+ goals

72%

Bohemians WFC W 3+ goals

46%

Lisburn Ladies W 1+ goals

66%

Lisburn Ladies W 2+ goals

29%

Lisburn Ladies W 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Bohemians WFC W (draw refunded)

83%

Lisburn Ladies W (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bohemians WFC W at home — creates 2.33, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

Lisburn Ladies W away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bohemians WFC W attack 2.33 + Lisburn Ladies W defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 2.54

Lisburn Ladies W attack 1.00 + Bohemians WFC W defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Bohemians WFC W scores more

69%

level

17%

Lisburn Ladies W scores more

14%

Bohemians WFC W at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Bohemians WFC W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff