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Bohemians vs F91 Dudelange — UEFA Europa Conference League 2021

Bohemians
Bohemians
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
F91 Dudelange
F91 Dudelange
7/29/2021UEFA Europa Conference LeagueUEFA Europa Conference League · 2nd Qualifying RoundAviva Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Bohemians81%
×Draw14%
F91 Dudelange5%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bohemians
2.46
F91 Dudelange
0.48

Bohemians creates 413% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 7 away

creates per match

Bohemians
2.50
F91 Dudelange
0.71

allows per match

Bohemians
0.25
F91 Dudelange
2.43

finishing

Bohemians+0.00on par
F91 Dudelange+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bohemians ↓

F91 Dudelange →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–16%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–016%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–013%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–08%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (16%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Bohemians or draw
95%
Bohemians or F91 Dudelange
86%
Draw or F91 Dudelange
19%

Winning margin

Bohemians wins by 2+
58%
F91 Dudelange wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Bohemians 1+ goals
91%
Bohemians 2+ goals
70%
Bohemians 3+ goals
44%
F91 Dudelange 1+ goals
38%
F91 Dudelange 2+ goals
8%
F91 Dudelange 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Bohemians (draw refunded)
94%
F91 Dudelange (draw refunded)
6%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bohemians at home — creates 2.50, concedes 0.25 · 4 matches

F91 Dudelange away — creates 0.71, concedes 2.43 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bohemians attack 2.50 + F91 Dudelange defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 2.46

F91 Dudelange attack 0.71 + Bohemians defence 0.25 → ÷2 → 0.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 81%?"

Bohemians scores more
81%
level
14%
F91 Dudelange scores more
5%

Bohemians at 81% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 81% does not mean "Bohemians will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bohemians vs F91 Dudelange

Bohemians beat F91 Dudelange 3-0 in UEFA Europa Conference League on July 29, 2021.

The match was played at Aviva Stadium in Dublin.