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Bohemians vs Cork City — Premier Division 2019

Bohemians
Bohemians
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Cork City
Cork City
8/22/2025Premier DivisionPremier Division · Round 28Dalymount Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

Bohemians58%
×Draw23%
Cork City19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bohemians
1.83
Cork City
0.93

Bohemians creates 97% more chances

Season form · 129 home / 63 away

creates per match

Bohemians
1.61
Cork City
0.73

allows per match

Bohemians
1.12
Cork City
2.05

finishing

Bohemians+0.00on par
Cork City+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bohemians ↓

Cork City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Bohemians or draw
81%
Bohemians or Cork City
77%
Draw or Cork City
42%

Winning margin

Bohemians wins by 2+
34%
Cork City wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Bohemians 1+ goals
84%
Bohemians 2+ goals
54%
Bohemians 3+ goals
28%
Cork City 1+ goals
61%
Cork City 2+ goals
24%
Cork City 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Bohemians (draw refunded)
76%
Cork City (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bohemians at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.12 · 129 matches

Cork City away — creates 0.73, concedes 2.05 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bohemians attack 1.61 + Cork City defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.83

Cork City attack 0.73 + Bohemians defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Bohemians scores more
58%
level
23%
Cork City scores more
19%

Bohemians at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Bohemians will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bohemians vs Cork City

Bohemians beat Cork City 3-0 in Premier Division on August 22, 2025.

The match was played at Dalymount Park in Dublin.