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Bohemians 1905 vs Plzen — Czech Liga 2019

Bohemians 1905
Bohemians 1905
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Plzen
Plzen
10/1/2022Czech LigaCzech Liga · Round 10Stadion Ďolíček

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Bohemians 190546%
×Draw23%
Plzen30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bohemians 1905
1.78
Plzen
1.40

Bohemians 1905 creates 27% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 7 away

creates per match

Bohemians 1905
1.42
Plzen
1.41

allows per match

Bohemians 1905
1.40
Plzen
2.14

finishing

Bohemians 1905-0.54scores less
Plzen+0.02on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bohemians 1905 ↓

Plzen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Bohemians 1905 or draw
70%
Bohemians 1905 or Plzen
77%
Draw or Plzen
54%

Winning margin

Bohemians 1905 wins by 2+
25%
Plzen wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Bohemians 1905 1+ goals
83%
Bohemians 1905 2+ goals
53%
Bohemians 1905 3+ goals
26%
Plzen 1+ goals
75%
Plzen 2+ goals
41%
Plzen 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Bohemians 1905 (draw refunded)
60%
Plzen (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bohemians 1905 at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.40 · 16 matches

Plzen away — creates 1.41, concedes 2.14 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bohemians 1905 attack 1.42 + Plzen defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 1.78

Plzen attack 1.41 + Bohemians 1905 defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Bohemians 1905 scores more
46%
level
23%
Plzen scores more
30%

Bohemians 1905 at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Bohemians 1905 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bohemians 1905 vs Plzen

Bohemians 1905 and Plzen drew 1-1 in Czech Liga on October 1, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Ďolíček in Praha.