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Bohemians 1905 vs Mlada Boleslav — Czech Liga 2019

Bohemians 1905
Bohemians 1905
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Mlada Boleslav
Mlada Boleslav
3/9/2024Czech LigaCzech Liga · Round 24Stadion Ďolíček

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 120+ matches

Bohemians 190543%
×Draw26%
Mlada Boleslav31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bohemians 1905
1.46
Mlada Boleslav
1.20

Bohemians 1905 creates 22% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 120 away

creates per match

Bohemians 1905
1.30
Mlada Boleslav
1.23

allows per match

Bohemians 1905
1.17
Mlada Boleslav
1.62

finishing

Bohemians 1905+0.00on par
Mlada Boleslav+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bohemians 1905 ↓

Mlada Boleslav →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Bohemians 1905 or draw
69%
Bohemians 1905 or Mlada Boleslav
74%
Draw or Mlada Boleslav
57%

Winning margin

Bohemians 1905 wins by 2+
21%
Mlada Boleslav wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Bohemians 1905 1+ goals
77%
Bohemians 1905 2+ goals
43%
Bohemians 1905 3+ goals
18%
Mlada Boleslav 1+ goals
70%
Mlada Boleslav 2+ goals
34%
Mlada Boleslav 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Bohemians 1905 (draw refunded)
58%
Mlada Boleslav (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bohemians 1905 at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.17 · 120 matches

Mlada Boleslav away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.62 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bohemians 1905 attack 1.30 + Mlada Boleslav defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.46

Mlada Boleslav attack 1.23 + Bohemians 1905 defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Bohemians 1905 scores more
43%
level
26%
Mlada Boleslav scores more
31%

Bohemians 1905 at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Bohemians 1905 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Czech Liga: Bohemians 1905 0–0 Mlada Boleslav

Bohemians 1905 and Mlada Boleslav drew 0-0 in Czech Liga on March 9, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Ďolíček in Praha.