Bohemians 1905 2–1 Baník Ostrava: Result & Stats

Bohemians 1905

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Baník Ostrava

7/20/2024

Czech Liga · Round 1Stadion Ďolíček

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Bohemians 190548%

×Draw24%

Baník Ostrava28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bohemians 1905Expected goals in this matchBaník Ostrava

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.22

Bohemians 1905

1.67

Baník Ostrava

1.22

Bohemians 1905 creates 37% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 7 away

1.42

creates per match

1.04

1.40

allows per match

1.91

creates per match

Bohemians 1905

1.42

Baník Ostrava

1.04

allows per match

Bohemians 1905

1.40

Baník Ostrava

1.91

-0.54scores less than expected

finishing

-0.04on par

finishing

Bohemians 1905-0.54scores less

Baník Ostrava-0.04on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bohemians 1905 ↓

Baník Ostrava →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Bohemians 1905 or draw

72%

Bohemians 1905 or Baník Ostrava

76%

Draw or Baník Ostrava

52%

Winning margin

Bohemians 1905 wins by 2+

25%

Baník Ostrava wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Bohemians 1905 1+ goals

81%

Bohemians 1905 2+ goals

50%

Bohemians 1905 3+ goals

23%

Baník Ostrava 1+ goals

70%

Baník Ostrava 2+ goals

34%

Baník Ostrava 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Bohemians 1905 (draw refunded)

63%

Baník Ostrava (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bohemians 1905 at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.40 · 16 matches

Baník Ostrava away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.91 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bohemians 1905 attack 1.42 + Baník Ostrava defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.67

Baník Ostrava attack 1.04 + Bohemians 1905 defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Bohemians 1905 scores more

48%

level

24%

Baník Ostrava scores more

28%

Bohemians 1905 at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Bohemians 1905 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff