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Bohemians 1905 II vs Přeštice — 3. liga - CFL A 2019

Bohemians 1905 II
Bohemians 1905 II
CANC
13:30
Přeštice
Přeštice
10/19/20243. liga - CFL A3. liga - CFL A · ČFL A - 11Stadion FC Čechie Uhříněves

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Bohemians 1905 II54%
×Draw21%
Přeštice24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bohemians 1905 II
2.07
Přeštice
1.33

Bohemians 1905 II creates 56% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 30 away

creates per match

Bohemians 1905 II
2.21
Přeštice
1.17

allows per match

Bohemians 1905 II
1.49
Přeštice
1.93

finishing

Bohemians 1905 II+0.00on par
Přeštice+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bohemians 1905 II ↓

Přeštice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Bohemians 1905 II or draw
76%
Bohemians 1905 II or Přeštice
79%
Draw or Přeštice
46%

Winning margin

Bohemians 1905 II wins by 2+
32%
Přeštice wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Bohemians 1905 II 1+ goals
87%
Bohemians 1905 II 2+ goals
61%
Bohemians 1905 II 3+ goals
34%
Přeštice 1+ goals
74%
Přeštice 2+ goals
38%
Přeštice 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Bohemians 1905 II (draw refunded)
69%
Přeštice (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bohemians 1905 II at home — creates 2.21, concedes 1.49 · 61 matches

Přeštice away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.93 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bohemians 1905 II attack 2.21 + Přeštice defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 2.07

Přeštice attack 1.17 + Bohemians 1905 II defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Bohemians 1905 II scores more
54%
level
21%
Přeštice scores more
24%

Bohemians 1905 II at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Bohemians 1905 II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Bohemians 1905 II vs Přeštice — Match Preview

Bohemians 1905 II face Přeštice on October 19, 2024 in this 3. liga - CFL A fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Bohemians 1905 II host Přeštice at Stadion FC Čechie Uhříněves.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.