Bogota FC 2–2 Jaguares: Result & Stats | Primera B

Bogota FC

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Jaguares

J. Mejia 71', 20' (pen)

A. Renteria 24'

K. Lenis 6'

4/8/2025

Primera B · Apertura - 10Estadio Metropolitano de Techo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Bogota FC31%

×Draw27%

Jaguares42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bogota FCExpected goals in this matchJaguares

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

1.38

Bogota FC

1.15

Jaguares

1.38

Jaguares creates 20% more chances

Season form · 129 home / 23 away

1.29

creates per match

1.48

1.27

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Bogota FC

1.29

Jaguares

1.48

allows per match

Bogota FC

1.27

Jaguares

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bogota FC+0.00on par

Jaguares+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bogota FC ↓

Jaguares →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Bogota FC or draw

58%

Bogota FC or Jaguares

73%

Draw or Jaguares

69%

Winning margin

Bogota FC wins by 2+

13%

Jaguares wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Bogota FC 1+ goals

68%

Bogota FC 2+ goals

32%

Bogota FC 3+ goals

11%

Jaguares 1+ goals

75%

Jaguares 2+ goals

40%

Jaguares 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Bogota FC (draw refunded)

43%

Jaguares (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bogota FC at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.27 · 129 matches

Jaguares away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.00 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bogota FC attack 1.29 + Jaguares defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.15

Jaguares attack 1.48 + Bogota FC defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Bogota FC scores more

31%

level

27%

Jaguares scores more

42%

Jaguares at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Jaguares will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'

K. Lenis

20'

J. MejiaPenalty

24'

A. Renteria

30'

R. Lora

30'

J. Mejia

38'

D. Viafara← I. Benavidez

68'

J. Herrera← J. Viveros

68'

71'

73'

75'

86'

88'

89'

J. Julio← J. A. Altamiranda Arrieta

89'

M. Gomez← A. Renteria

90+4'

F. Moreno

90'

C. Zamora← K. Castro

90'

C. Huerfano← J. D. Moreno Torres

Bogota

Jaguares

1

Figueroa

4

Mosquera

30

▼

Arrieta

17

▼

14

25

23

18

▼

Lugo

15

Maza

11

⚽

▼

Renteria

60

⚽

29

16

2

3

46

17

49

▼

Torres

20

▼

Benavidez

19

▼

Ruiz

9

⚽2

Mejia

6

▼

Castro

Manager: L. Melo

38'▲D. Viafara←▼I. Benavidez

75'▲L. Obregon←▼S. Ruiz

90'▲C. Zamora←▼K. Castro

90'▲C. Huerfano←▼J. D. Moreno Torres

Bogota FC substitutes

ZamoraEstacioObregonAgamezHuerfanoBarbosaViafara

Manager: A. Hernández

68'▲J. Herrera←▼J. Viveros

68'▲D. Padilla←▼K. Lugo

89'▲J. Julio←▼J. A. Altamiranda Arrieta

89'▲M. Gomez←▼A. Renteria

Jaguares substitutes

12Arroyo7Herrera20Andrade5Lovera8Julio28Gomez26Padilla

Primera B: Bogota FC 2–2 Jaguares

Bogota FC and Jaguares drew 2-2 in Primera B on April 8, 2025.

Goals: K. Lenis (6'), J. Mejia (20' pen, 71'), A. Renteria (24').

The match was played at Estadio Metropolitano de Techo.

Bogota FC vs Jaguares — Primera B 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Primera B: Bogota FC 2–2 Jaguares