Bogota FC 1–2 Internacional Palmira: Result & Stats

Bogota FC

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Internacional Palmira

1/30/2026

Primera B · Apertura - 2Estadio Metropolitano de Techo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Bogota FC38%

×Draw27%

Internacional Palmira35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bogota FCExpected goals in this matchInternacional Palmira

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.22

Bogota FC

1.27

Internacional Palmira

1.22

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 139 home / 49 away

1.29

creates per match

1.16

1.28

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Bogota FC

1.29

Internacional Palmira

1.16

allows per match

Bogota FC

1.28

Internacional Palmira

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bogota FC+0.00on par

Internacional Palmira+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bogota FC ↓

Internacional Palmira →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Bogota FC or draw

65%

Bogota FC or Internacional Palmira

73%

Draw or Internacional Palmira

62%

Winning margin

Bogota FC wins by 2+

17%

Internacional Palmira wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Bogota FC 1+ goals

72%

Bogota FC 2+ goals

36%

Bogota FC 3+ goals

14%

Internacional Palmira 1+ goals

70%

Internacional Palmira 2+ goals

34%

Internacional Palmira 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Bogota FC (draw refunded)

52%

Internacional Palmira (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bogota FC at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.28 · 139 matches

Internacional Palmira away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.24 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bogota FC attack 1.29 + Internacional Palmira defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.27

Internacional Palmira attack 1.16 + Bogota FC defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Bogota FC scores more

38%

level

27%

Internacional Palmira scores more

35%

Bogota FC at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Bogota FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff