Bogota FC 3–2 Cortulua: Result & Stats | Primera B

Bogota FC

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Cortulua

3/17/2019

Primera B · Apertura - 8Estadio Metropolitano de Techo (Bogotá, D.C.)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Bogota FC39%

×Draw26%

Cortulua34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bogota FCExpected goals in this matchCortulua

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.25

Bogota FC

1.36

Cortulua

1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 139 home / 93 away

1.29

creates per match

1.23

1.28

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Bogota FC

1.29

Cortulua

1.23

allows per match

Bogota FC

1.28

Cortulua

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bogota FC+0.00on par

Cortulua+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bogota FC ↓

Cortulua →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Bogota FC or draw

66%

Bogota FC or Cortulua

74%

Draw or Cortulua

61%

Winning margin

Bogota FC wins by 2+

18%

Cortulua wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Bogota FC 1+ goals

74%

Bogota FC 2+ goals

39%

Bogota FC 3+ goals

16%

Cortulua 1+ goals

71%

Cortulua 2+ goals

36%

Cortulua 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Bogota FC (draw refunded)

53%

Cortulua (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bogota FC at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.28 · 139 matches

Cortulua away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.43 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bogota FC attack 1.29 + Cortulua defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.36

Cortulua attack 1.23 + Bogota FC defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Bogota FC scores more

39%

level

26%

Cortulua scores more

34%

Bogota FC at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Bogota FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff