Bognor Regis Town 0–1 Dorking Wanderers

Bognor Regis Town

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Dorking Wanderers

7/4/2026

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Bognor Regis Town24%

×Draw23%

Dorking Wanderers53%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bognor Regis TownExpected goals in this matchDorking Wanderers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

1.83

Bognor Regis Town

1.17

Dorking Wanderers

1.83

Dorking Wanderers creates 56% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 6 away

1.00

creates per match

2.33

1.33

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Bognor Regis Town

1.00

Dorking Wanderers

2.33

allows per match

Bognor Regis Town

1.33

Dorking Wanderers

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bognor Regis Town+0.00on par

Dorking Wanderers+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bognor Regis Town ↓

Dorking Wanderers →

0–05%

0–19%

0–28%

0–35%

0–42%

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–33%

2–42%

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Bognor Regis Town or draw

47%

Bognor Regis Town or Dorking Wanderers

77%

Draw or Dorking Wanderers

76%

Winning margin

Bognor Regis Town wins by 2+

10%

Dorking Wanderers wins by 2+

30%

Team goals

Bognor Regis Town 1+ goals

69%

Bognor Regis Town 2+ goals

33%

Bognor Regis Town 3+ goals

11%

Dorking Wanderers 1+ goals

84%

Dorking Wanderers 2+ goals

54%

Dorking Wanderers 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Bognor Regis Town (draw refunded)

32%

Dorking Wanderers (draw refunded)

68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Bognor Regis Town at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

Dorking Wanderers away — creates 2.33, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Bognor Regis Town attack 1.00 + Dorking Wanderers defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.17

Dorking Wanderers attack 2.33 + Bognor Regis Town defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 53%?"

Bognor Regis Town scores more

24%

level

23%

Dorking Wanderers scores more

53%

Dorking Wanderers at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Dorking Wanderers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Bognor

Dorking

Manager: R. Blake

Manager: M. White