Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Bognor Regis Town vs Burton Albion — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Bognor Regis Town
Bognor Regis Town
FT
0 – 3
Burton Albion
Burton Albion
7/10/2021Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Nyewood Lane

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Bognor Regis Town19%
×Draw24%
Burton Albion57%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bognor Regis Town
0.83
Burton Albion
1.67

Burton Albion creates 101% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 6 away

creates per match

Bognor Regis Town
1.00
Burton Albion
2.00

allows per match

Bognor Regis Town
1.33
Burton Albion
0.67

finishing

Bognor Regis Town+0.00on par
Burton Albion+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bognor Regis Town ↓

Burton Albion →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–114%
0–211%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Bognor Regis Town or draw
43%
Bognor Regis Town or Burton Albion
76%
Draw or Burton Albion
81%

Winning margin

Bognor Regis Town wins by 2+
6%
Burton Albion wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

Bognor Regis Town 1+ goals
56%
Bognor Regis Town 2+ goals
20%
Bognor Regis Town 3+ goals
5%
Burton Albion 1+ goals
81%
Burton Albion 2+ goals
50%
Burton Albion 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Bognor Regis Town (draw refunded)
24%
Burton Albion (draw refunded)
76%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bognor Regis Town at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

Burton Albion away — creates 2.00, concedes 0.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bognor Regis Town attack 1.00 + Burton Albion defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.83

Burton Albion attack 2.00 + Bognor Regis Town defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Bognor Regis Town scores more
19%
level
24%
Burton Albion scores more
57%

Burton Albion at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Burton Albion will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Bognor Regis Town 0–3 Burton Albion

Burton Albion beat Bognor Regis Town 3-0 in Friendlies Clubs on July 10, 2021.

The match was played at Nyewood Lane in Bognor Regis, West Sussex.