Bofoakwe Tano 0–1 Legon Cities: Result & Stats

Bofoakwe Tano

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Legon Cities

K. Suraje 32'

12/17/2023

Premier League · Round 15Dawu Sports Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Bofoakwe Tano42%

×Draw33%

Legon Cities25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bofoakwe TanoExpected goals in this matchLegon Cities

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.01

0.70

Bofoakwe Tano

1.01

Legon Cities

0.70

Bofoakwe Tano creates 44% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 93 away

0.65

creates per match

0.59

0.82

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Bofoakwe Tano

0.65

Legon Cities

0.59

allows per match

Bofoakwe Tano

0.82

Legon Cities

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bofoakwe Tano+0.00on par

Legon Cities+0.00on par

Total goals

Under75
Over25

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No68
Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bofoakwe Tano ↓

Legon Cities →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–018%

0–113%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–113%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–16%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (18%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

82%18%1.5

51%49%2.5

25%75%3.5

9%91%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

Bofoakwe Tano or draw

75%

Bofoakwe Tano or Legon Cities

67%

Draw or Legon Cities

58%

Winning margin

Bofoakwe Tano wins by 2+

16%

Legon Cities wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Bofoakwe Tano 1+ goals

64%

Bofoakwe Tano 2+ goals

27%

Bofoakwe Tano 3+ goals

8%

Legon Cities 1+ goals

50%

Legon Cities 2+ goals

16%

Legon Cities 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Bofoakwe Tano (draw refunded)

63%

Legon Cities (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

19%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bofoakwe Tano at home — creates 0.65, concedes 0.82 · 17 matches

Legon Cities away — creates 0.59, concedes 1.38 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bofoakwe Tano attack 0.65 + Legon Cities defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.01

Legon Cities attack 0.59 + Bofoakwe Tano defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Bofoakwe Tano scores more

42%

level

33%

Legon Cities scores more

25%

Bofoakwe Tano at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Bofoakwe Tano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

32'

K. Suraje

36'

D. Blessing← D. Blessing

53'

N. Ibrahim← N. Ibrahim

55'

R. Senanu

65'

S. Frimpong← S. Frimpong

65'

S. Tenedu← S. Tenedu

70'

M. Suleman

80'

F. Antwi← F. Antwi

80'

O. Amadu← O. Amadu

90+2'

T. Atsu← T. Atsu

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff