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Bofoakwe Tano vs Karela — Premier League 2019

Bofoakwe Tano
Bofoakwe Tano
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Karela
Karela
3/24/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 23Coronation Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Bofoakwe Tano41%
×Draw34%
Karela26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bofoakwe Tano
0.98
Karela
0.71

Bofoakwe Tano creates 38% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 109 away

creates per match

Bofoakwe Tano
0.65
Karela
0.61

allows per match

Bofoakwe Tano
0.82
Karela
1.31

finishing

Bofoakwe Tano+0.00on par
Karela+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Under
  • Under76
  • Over24

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bofoakwe Tano ↓

Karela →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–018%
0–113%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–16%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (18%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
82%18%1.5
50%50%2.5
24%76%3.5
9%91%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Bofoakwe Tano or draw
74%
Bofoakwe Tano or Karela
66%
Draw or Karela
59%

Winning margin

Bofoakwe Tano wins by 2+
16%
Karela wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Bofoakwe Tano 1+ goals
62%
Bofoakwe Tano 2+ goals
26%
Bofoakwe Tano 3+ goals
8%
Karela 1+ goals
51%
Karela 2+ goals
16%
Karela 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Bofoakwe Tano (draw refunded)
61%
Karela (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
19%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bofoakwe Tano at home — creates 0.65, concedes 0.82 · 17 matches

Karela away — creates 0.61, concedes 1.31 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bofoakwe Tano attack 0.65 + Karela defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 0.98

Karela attack 0.61 + Bofoakwe Tano defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Bofoakwe Tano scores more
41%
level
34%
Karela scores more
26%

Bofoakwe Tano at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Bofoakwe Tano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bofoakwe Tano vs Karela

Bofoakwe Tano beat Karela 2-1 in Premier League on March 24, 2024.

The match was played at Coronation Park in Sunyani.