Bofoakwe Tano 1–0 Hearts of Oak: Result & Stats

Bofoakwe Tano

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Hearts of Oak

S. Dauda 47'

9/30/2023

Premier League · Round 3Coronation Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Bofoakwe Tano32%

×Draw36%

Hearts of Oak32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bofoakwe TanoExpected goals in this matchHearts of Oak

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.76

0.77

Bofoakwe Tano

0.76

Hearts of Oak

0.77

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 108 away

0.65

creates per match

0.72

0.82

allows per match

0.86

creates per match

Bofoakwe Tano

0.65

Hearts of Oak

0.72

allows per match

Bofoakwe Tano

0.82

Hearts of Oak

0.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bofoakwe Tano+0.00on par

Hearts of Oak+0.00on par

Total goals

Under80
Over20

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No71
Yes29

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bofoakwe Tano ↓

Hearts of Oak →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–022%

0–117%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–06%

2–15%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–11%

3–20%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (22%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

78%22%1.5

45%55%2.5

20%80%3.5

7%93%4.5

2%98%

Double chance

Bofoakwe Tano or draw

68%

Bofoakwe Tano or Hearts of Oak

64%

Draw or Hearts of Oak

68%

Winning margin

Bofoakwe Tano wins by 2+

10%

Hearts of Oak wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Bofoakwe Tano 1+ goals

53%

Bofoakwe Tano 2+ goals

18%

Bofoakwe Tano 3+ goals

4%

Hearts of Oak 1+ goals

54%

Hearts of Oak 2+ goals

18%

Hearts of Oak 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Bofoakwe Tano (draw refunded)

50%

Hearts of Oak (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

16%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bofoakwe Tano at home — creates 0.65, concedes 0.82 · 17 matches

Hearts of Oak away — creates 0.72, concedes 0.86 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bofoakwe Tano attack 0.65 + Hearts of Oak defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.76

Hearts of Oak attack 0.72 + Bofoakwe Tano defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 32%?"

Bofoakwe Tano scores more

32%

level

36%

Hearts of Oak scores more

32%

Bofoakwe Tano at 32% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 32% does not mean "Bofoakwe Tano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

31'

K. Anane

45+2'

C. Ansah

45+3'

E. Mwankurinah

46'

G. J. Otanga Mvouo← I. Salifu

46'

A. Nurudeen← A. Nurudeen

47'

S. Dauda

53'

E. Ankrah

69'

D. Blessing← D. Blessing

73'

S. Suraj← S. Suraj

73'

R. Amponsah← R. Amponsah

87'

R. Amponsah

90+5'

I. Baffoe← I. Baffoe

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff