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Bofoakwe Tano vs Asante Kotoko — Premier League 2019

Bofoakwe Tano
Bofoakwe Tano
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Asante Kotoko
Asante Kotoko
12/30/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 17Coronation Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Bofoakwe Tano30%
×Draw35%
Asante Kotoko34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bofoakwe Tano
0.76
Asante Kotoko
0.83

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 109 away

creates per match

Bofoakwe Tano
0.65
Asante Kotoko
0.84

allows per match

Bofoakwe Tano
0.82
Asante Kotoko
0.87

finishing

Bofoakwe Tano+0.00on par
Asante Kotoko+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Under
  • Under79
  • Over21

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

70%No
  • No70
  • Yes30

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bofoakwe Tano ↓

Asante Kotoko →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–020%
0–117%
0–27%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–06%
2–15%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (20%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
80%20%1.5
47%53%2.5
21%79%3.5
8%92%4.5
2%98%

Double chance

Bofoakwe Tano or draw
66%
Bofoakwe Tano or Asante Kotoko
65%
Draw or Asante Kotoko
70%

Winning margin

Bofoakwe Tano wins by 2+
9%
Asante Kotoko wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Bofoakwe Tano 1+ goals
53%
Bofoakwe Tano 2+ goals
18%
Bofoakwe Tano 3+ goals
4%
Asante Kotoko 1+ goals
56%
Asante Kotoko 2+ goals
20%
Asante Kotoko 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Bofoakwe Tano (draw refunded)
47%
Asante Kotoko (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
17%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bofoakwe Tano at home — creates 0.65, concedes 0.82 · 17 matches

Asante Kotoko away — creates 0.84, concedes 0.87 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bofoakwe Tano attack 0.65 + Asante Kotoko defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.76

Asante Kotoko attack 0.84 + Bofoakwe Tano defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 34%?"

Bofoakwe Tano scores more
30%
level
35%
Asante Kotoko scores more
34%

Asante Kotoko at 34% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 34% does not mean "Asante Kotoko will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bofoakwe Tano vs Asante Kotoko

Asante Kotoko beat Bofoakwe Tano 2-0 in Premier League on December 30, 2023.

The match was played at Coronation Park in Sunyani.