Bofoakwe Tano 1–0 Aduana Stars: Result & Stats

Bofoakwe Tano

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Aduana Stars

4/10/2024

Premier League · Round 25Coronation Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Bofoakwe Tano38%

×Draw34%

Aduana Stars29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bofoakwe TanoExpected goals in this matchAduana Stars

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.95

0.78

Bofoakwe Tano

0.95

Aduana Stars

0.78

Bofoakwe Tano creates 22% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 110 away

0.65

creates per match

0.75

0.82

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Bofoakwe Tano

0.65

Aduana Stars

0.75

allows per match

Bofoakwe Tano

0.82

Aduana Stars

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bofoakwe Tano+0.00on par

Aduana Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

Under75
Over25

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No67
Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bofoakwe Tano ↓

Aduana Stars →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–018%

0–114%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–16%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (18%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

82%18%1.5

52%48%2.5

25%75%3.5

10%90%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

Bofoakwe Tano or draw

71%

Bofoakwe Tano or Aduana Stars

66%

Draw or Aduana Stars

62%

Winning margin

Bofoakwe Tano wins by 2+

14%

Aduana Stars wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Bofoakwe Tano 1+ goals

61%

Bofoakwe Tano 2+ goals

25%

Bofoakwe Tano 3+ goals

7%

Aduana Stars 1+ goals

54%

Aduana Stars 2+ goals

18%

Aduana Stars 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Bofoakwe Tano (draw refunded)

57%

Aduana Stars (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

20%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bofoakwe Tano at home — creates 0.65, concedes 0.82 · 17 matches

Aduana Stars away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.25 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bofoakwe Tano attack 0.65 + Aduana Stars defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 0.95

Aduana Stars attack 0.75 + Bofoakwe Tano defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Bofoakwe Tano scores more

38%

level

34%

Aduana Stars scores more

29%

Bofoakwe Tano at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Bofoakwe Tano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff