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Boeung Ket vs Lao Toyota — AFC Cup 2018

Boeung Ket
Boeung Ket
FT
3 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Lao Toyota
Lao Toyota
1/29/2018AFC CupAFC Cup · Play-offs RoundPhnom Penh National Olympic Stadium (Phnom Penh)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Boeung Ket49%
×Draw18%
Lao Toyota33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Boeung Ket
2.77
Lao Toyota
2.27

Boeung Ket creates 22% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 5 away

creates per match

Boeung Ket
1.75
Lao Toyota
1.80

allows per match

Boeung Ket
2.75
Lao Toyota
3.80

finishing

Boeung Ket+0.00on par
Lao Toyota+0.00on par

Total goals

87%Over
  • Over87
  • Under13

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

84%Yes
  • Yes84
  • No16

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Boeung Ket ↓

Lao Toyota →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–02%
1–14%
1–25%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–26%
3–35%
3–43%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–24%
4–33%
4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
87%13%3.5
73%27%4.5
55%45%

Double chance

Boeung Ket or draw
67%
Boeung Ket or Lao Toyota
82%
Draw or Lao Toyota
51%

Winning margin

Boeung Ket wins by 2+
31%
Lao Toyota wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Boeung Ket 1+ goals
94%
Boeung Ket 2+ goals
76%
Boeung Ket 3+ goals
51%
Lao Toyota 1+ goals
90%
Lao Toyota 2+ goals
66%
Lao Toyota 3+ goals
39%

Draw no bet

Boeung Ket (draw refunded)
60%
Lao Toyota (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
80%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Boeung Ket at home — creates 1.75, concedes 2.75 · 4 matches

Lao Toyota away — creates 1.80, concedes 3.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Boeung Ket attack 1.75 + Lao Toyota defence 3.80 → ÷2 → 2.77

Lao Toyota attack 1.80 + Boeung Ket defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 2.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Boeung Ket scores more
49%
level
18%
Lao Toyota scores more
33%

Boeung Ket at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Boeung Ket will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AFC Cup: Boeung Ket 3–3 Lao Toyota

Boeung Ket and Lao Toyota drew 3-3 in AFC Cup on January 29, 2018.

The match was played at Phnom Penh National Olympic Stadium (Phnom Penh).