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Bodrum FK vs Yeni Malatyaspor — 1. Lig 2018

Bodrum FK
Bodrum FK
FT
3 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
Yeni Malatyaspor
Yeni Malatyaspor
8/14/20221. Lig1. Lig · Round 1Bodrum İlçe Stadı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Bodrum FK77%
×Draw15%
Yeni Malatyaspor8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bodrum FK
2.49
Yeni Malatyaspor
0.68

Bodrum FK creates 266% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 33 away

creates per match

Bodrum FK
1.83
Yeni Malatyaspor
0.70

allows per match

Bodrum FK
0.66
Yeni Malatyaspor
3.15

finishing

Bodrum FK+0.00on par
Yeni Malatyaspor+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bodrum FK ↓

Yeni Malatyaspor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–17%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–15%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Bodrum FK or draw
92%
Bodrum FK or Yeni Malatyaspor
85%
Draw or Yeni Malatyaspor
23%

Winning margin

Bodrum FK wins by 2+
54%
Yeni Malatyaspor wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Bodrum FK 1+ goals
92%
Bodrum FK 2+ goals
71%
Bodrum FK 3+ goals
45%
Yeni Malatyaspor 1+ goals
49%
Yeni Malatyaspor 2+ goals
15%
Yeni Malatyaspor 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Bodrum FK (draw refunded)
90%
Yeni Malatyaspor (draw refunded)
10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bodrum FK at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.66 · 59 matches

Yeni Malatyaspor away — creates 0.70, concedes 3.15 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bodrum FK attack 1.83 + Yeni Malatyaspor defence 3.15 → ÷2 → 2.49

Yeni Malatyaspor attack 0.70 + Bodrum FK defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 77%?"

Bodrum FK scores more
77%
level
15%
Yeni Malatyaspor scores more
8%

Bodrum FK at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "Bodrum FK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Lig: Bodrum FK 3–1 Yeni Malatyaspor

Bodrum FK beat Yeni Malatyaspor 3-1 in 1. Lig on August 14, 2022.

The match was played at Bodrum İlçe Stadı in Bodrum.