Bodrum FK 1–2 Sivasspor: Result & Stats | 1. Lig

Bodrum FK

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Sivasspor

T. Seferi 45'

T. Boke 66'

U. Ciftci 45'

1/19/2026

1. Lig · Round 21Grey Beton Bodrum Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Bodrum FK55%

×Draw26%

Sivasspor19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bodrum FKExpected goals in this matchSivasspor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

0.78

Bodrum FK

1.52

Sivasspor

0.78

Bodrum FK creates 95% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 19 away

1.83

creates per match

0.89

0.66

allows per match

1.21

creates per match

Bodrum FK

1.83

Sivasspor

0.89

allows per match

Bodrum FK

0.66

Sivasspor

1.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bodrum FK+0.00on par

Sivasspor+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bodrum FK ↓

Sivasspor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Bodrum FK or draw

81%

Bodrum FK or Sivasspor

74%

Draw or Sivasspor

45%

Winning margin

Bodrum FK wins by 2+

29%

Sivasspor wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Bodrum FK 1+ goals

78%

Bodrum FK 2+ goals

45%

Bodrum FK 3+ goals

20%

Sivasspor 1+ goals

54%

Sivasspor 2+ goals

18%

Sivasspor 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Bodrum FK (draw refunded)

74%

Sivasspor (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bodrum FK at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.66 · 59 matches

Sivasspor away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.21 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bodrum FK attack 1.83 + Sivasspor defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.52

Sivasspor attack 0.89 + Bodrum FK defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Bodrum FK scores more

55%

level

26%

Sivasspor scores more

19%

Bodrum FK at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Bodrum FK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

99

T. Seferi

Bodrum FK · F

7.6

Match Events

10'

23'

40'

45'

45'

66'

70'

E. Bilsel← M. Mohammed

73'

B. Kimpioka← A. Malle

75'

O. Imeri← A. Habesoglu

82'

A. Turk← M. Yilmaz

85'

M. Yildirim← K. Fidan

90+3'

Arlind Ajeti

90+2'

Arlind AjetiCard upgrade

90+10'

Benjamin Mbunga-Kimpioka

90+8'

Murat Paluli

90+4'

Y. Kefkir← E. Basyigit

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BodrumSivasspor

Overview

59%Possession41%

10Total Shots12

1.22Expected Goals (xG)1.34

7Corners4

12Fouls16

Shots

10Total Shots12

4On Target5

5Off Target3

1Blocked4

7Inside Box7

3Outside Box5

Passing

59%Possession41%

403Total Passes295

336Accurate Passes219

83%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

12Fouls16

1Yellow Cards4

1Red Cards0

0Offsides1