Bodrum FK 2–0 Pendikspor: Result & Stats | 1. Lig

Bodrum FK

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Pendikspor

T. Seferi 81'

V. Soldo 55' (OG)

5/7/2026

1. Lig · Quarter-finalsBodrum Ilce Stadi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Bodrum FK61%

×Draw22%

Pendikspor18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bodrum FKExpected goals in this matchPendikspor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.95

0.95

Bodrum FK

1.95

Pendikspor

0.95

Bodrum FK creates 105% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

2.49

creates per match

0.78

1.13

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Bodrum FK

2.49

Pendikspor

0.78

allows per match

Bodrum FK

1.13

Pendikspor

1.40

+0.34scores more than expected

finishing

-0.11scores less than expected

finishing

Bodrum FK+0.34scores more

Pendikspor-0.11scores less

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bodrum FK ↓

Pendikspor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Bodrum FK or draw

82%

Bodrum FK or Pendikspor

78%

Draw or Pendikspor

39%

Winning margin

Bodrum FK wins by 2+

36%

Pendikspor wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Bodrum FK 1+ goals

86%

Bodrum FK 2+ goals

58%

Bodrum FK 3+ goals

31%

Pendikspor 1+ goals

61%

Pendikspor 2+ goals

25%

Pendikspor 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Bodrum FK (draw refunded)

77%

Pendikspor (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bodrum FK at home — creates 2.49, concedes 1.13 · 6 matches

Pendikspor away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.40 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bodrum FK attack 2.49 + Pendikspor defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.95

Pendikspor attack 0.78 + Bodrum FK defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Bodrum FK scores more

61%

level

22%

Pendikspor scores more

18%

Bodrum FK at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Bodrum FK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23

D. Hotic

Bodrum FK · M

7.7

Match Events

49'

Vinko Soldo

54'

Đorđe Denić

55'

V. SoldoOwn goal

59'

66'

73'

79'

80'

J. Clarke-Harris← Rogerio Thuram

81'

T. Seferi↳ A. Habesoglu

85'

H. Maldar← H. Yesil

87'

G. Bayrakdar← P. Brazao

90+4'

Yiğit Fidan

90+3'

C. Sen← O. Imeri

90+3'

I. Tarim← T. Seferi

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BodrumPendikspor

Overview

41%Possession59%

14Total Shots9

3Corners4

11Fouls14

Shots

14Total Shots9

4On Target1

4Off Target5

6Blocked3

11Inside Box2

3Outside Box7

Passing

41%Possession59%

292Total Passes430

237Accurate Passes368

81%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

11Fouls14

1Yellow Cards4

2Offsides2