Bodrum FK 0–5 Menemen FK: Result & Stats

Bodrum FK

FT

0 – 5

HT: 0 – 3

Menemen FK

İ. Türkaslan 88' (OG)

M. Al 51'

S. Uzun 44', 10'

Ö. Toprak 35'

9/23/2015

Türkiye Kupası · 2nd RoundBodrum İlçe Stadı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Bodrum FK44%

×Draw23%

Menemen FK33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bodrum FKExpected goals in this matchMenemen FK

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.81

1.53

Bodrum FK

1.81

Menemen FK

1.53

Bodrum FK creates 18% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 6 away

1.78

creates per match

1.50

1.56

allows per match

1.83

creates per match

Bodrum FK

1.78

Menemen FK

1.50

allows per match

Bodrum FK

1.56

Menemen FK

1.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bodrum FK+0.00on par

Menemen FK+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bodrum FK ↓

Menemen FK →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Bodrum FK or draw

67%

Bodrum FK or Menemen FK

77%

Draw or Menemen FK

56%

Winning margin

Bodrum FK wins by 2+

24%

Menemen FK wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Bodrum FK 1+ goals

84%

Bodrum FK 2+ goals

54%

Bodrum FK 3+ goals

27%

Menemen FK 1+ goals

78%

Menemen FK 2+ goals

45%

Menemen FK 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Bodrum FK (draw refunded)

57%

Menemen FK (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bodrum FK at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.56 · 9 matches

Menemen FK away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bodrum FK attack 1.78 + Menemen FK defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.81

Menemen FK attack 1.50 + Bodrum FK defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Bodrum FK scores more

44%

level

23%

Menemen FK scores more

33%

Bodrum FK at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Bodrum FK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

S. Uzun

35'

Ö. Toprak

44'

S. Uzun

46'

E. Değişmez← F. Nizam

46'

O. Algül← K. Özyurt

46'

R. Altıntepe← M. Erdemir

51'

M. Al

53'

F. Bozkuş← S. Uzun

56'

M. Bağlı← M. Adaş

63'

E. Ataklı← M. Al

88'

İ. TürkaslanOwn goal

Bodrum

Menemen

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

Al

⚽2

▼

🥅

▼

▼

▼

Manager: İ. Cambaz

46'▲E. Değişmez←▼F. Nizam

46'▲O. Algül←▼K. Özyurt

56'▲M. Bağlı←▼M. Adaş

Bodrum FK substitutes

DeğişmezAlgülBağlıÖztürkAyseverBakkallarYildiz

Manager: S. Dinçel

46'▲R. Altıntepe←▼M. Erdemir

53'▲F. Bozkuş←▼S. Uzun

63'▲E. Ataklı←▼M. Al

Menemen FK substitutes

AltıntepeBozkuşAtaklıBulutŞahinAydoğanKaya