Bodrum FK 1–1 Isparta 32 Spor: Result & Stats

Bodrum FK

AET

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Isparta 32 Spor

10/27/2021

Türkiye Kupası · 3rd RoundBodrum İlçe Stadı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Bodrum FK44%

×Draw21%

Isparta 32 Spor35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bodrum FKExpected goals in this matchIsparta 32 Spor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.02

1.78

Bodrum FK

2.02

Isparta 32 Spor

1.78

Bodrum FK creates 13% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 4 away

1.78

creates per match

2.00

1.56

allows per match

2.25

creates per match

Bodrum FK

1.78

Isparta 32 Spor

2.00

allows per match

Bodrum FK

1.56

Isparta 32 Spor

2.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bodrum FK+0.00on par

Isparta 32 Spor+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bodrum FK ↓

Isparta 32 Spor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

52%48%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

Bodrum FK or draw

65%

Bodrum FK or Isparta 32 Spor

79%

Draw or Isparta 32 Spor

56%

Winning margin

Bodrum FK wins by 2+

25%

Isparta 32 Spor wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Bodrum FK 1+ goals

87%

Bodrum FK 2+ goals

60%

Bodrum FK 3+ goals

33%

Isparta 32 Spor 1+ goals

83%

Isparta 32 Spor 2+ goals

53%

Isparta 32 Spor 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Bodrum FK (draw refunded)

56%

Isparta 32 Spor (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bodrum FK at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.56 · 9 matches

Isparta 32 Spor away — creates 2.00, concedes 2.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bodrum FK attack 1.78 + Isparta 32 Spor defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.02

Isparta 32 Spor attack 2.00 + Bodrum FK defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Bodrum FK scores more

44%

level

21%

Isparta 32 Spor scores more

35%

Bodrum FK at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Bodrum FK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff