Bodrum FK 3–4 Esenler Erokspor: Result & Stats

Bodrum FK

FT

3 – 4

HT: 2 – 2

Esenler Erokspor

T. Seferi 90' (pen)

D. Hotic 29'

A. Habesoglu 15'

H. Catakovic 90'

O. Kayode 65' (pen), 45', 10' (pen)

3/8/2026

1. Lig · Round 29Grey Beton Bodrum Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Bodrum FK44%

×Draw26%

Esenler Erokspor30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bodrum FKExpected goals in this matchEsenler Erokspor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.19

Bodrum FK

1.50

Esenler Erokspor

1.19

Bodrum FK creates 26% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 38 away

1.83

creates per match

1.71

0.66

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Bodrum FK

1.83

Esenler Erokspor

1.71

allows per match

Bodrum FK

0.66

Esenler Erokspor

1.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bodrum FK+0.00on par

Esenler Erokspor+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bodrum FK ↓

Esenler Erokspor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Bodrum FK or draw

70%

Bodrum FK or Esenler Erokspor

74%

Draw or Esenler Erokspor

56%

Winning margin

Bodrum FK wins by 2+

22%

Esenler Erokspor wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Bodrum FK 1+ goals

78%

Bodrum FK 2+ goals

44%

Bodrum FK 3+ goals

19%

Esenler Erokspor 1+ goals

70%

Esenler Erokspor 2+ goals

33%

Esenler Erokspor 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Bodrum FK (draw refunded)

60%

Esenler Erokspor (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bodrum FK at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.66 · 59 matches

Esenler Erokspor away — creates 1.71, concedes 1.18 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bodrum FK attack 1.83 + Esenler Erokspor defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.50

Esenler Erokspor attack 1.71 + Bodrum FK defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Bodrum FK scores more

44%

level

26%

Esenler Erokspor scores more

30%

Bodrum FK at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Bodrum FK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

O. Kayode

Esenler Erokspor · F

9.2

Match Events

8'

Cenk Şen

9'

Ömer Faruk BeyazPenalty confirmed

10'

O. KayodePenalty

15'

29'

35'

38'

45'

46'

53'

53'

Dino HotićCard upgrade

59'

G. Kanga← R. Jack

64'

Hayrullah BilazerPenalty confirmed

65'

O. KayodePenalty

70'

R. Niyaz← O. Beyaz

72'

H. Osman← Y. Sertkaya

81'

H. Catakovic← O. Kayode

81'

B. Lus← Amilton

82'

M. Erdilman← A. Aslan

82'

E. Bilsel← A. Habesoglu

83'

Hayrullah Bilazer

90'

H. Catakovic↳ R. Niyaz

90'

T. SeferiPenalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BodrumEsenler

Overview

31%Possession69%

9Total Shots15

3Corners4

16Fouls10

Shots

9Total Shots15

4On Target8

3Off Target5

2Blocked2

8Inside Box12

1Outside Box3

Passing

31%Possession69%

194Total Passes447

131Accurate Passes384

68%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

16Fouls10

2Yellow Cards2

1Red Cards0

3Offsides5