Bodrum FK 0–1 Başakşehir: Result & Stats

Bodrum FK

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Başakşehir

9/14/2024

League #203 · Round 5Grey Beton Bodrum Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Bodrum FK52%

×Draw25%

Başakşehir23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bodrum FKExpected goals in this matchBaşakşehir

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

0.98

Bodrum FK

1.60

Başakşehir

0.98

Bodrum FK creates 63% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 17 away

1.67

creates per match

1.29

0.67

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Bodrum FK

1.67

Başakşehir

1.29

allows per match

Bodrum FK

0.67

Başakşehir

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bodrum FK+0.00on par

Başakşehir+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bodrum FK ↓

Başakşehir →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Bodrum FK or draw

77%

Bodrum FK or Başakşehir

75%

Draw or Başakşehir

48%

Winning margin

Bodrum FK wins by 2+

27%

Başakşehir wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Bodrum FK 1+ goals

80%

Bodrum FK 2+ goals

47%

Bodrum FK 3+ goals

22%

Başakşehir 1+ goals

62%

Başakşehir 2+ goals

26%

Başakşehir 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Bodrum FK (draw refunded)

69%

Başakşehir (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bodrum FK at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

Başakşehir away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.53 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bodrum FK attack 1.67 + Başakşehir defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.60

Başakşehir attack 1.29 + Bodrum FK defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Bodrum FK scores more

52%

level

25%

Başakşehir scores more

23%

Bodrum FK at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Bodrum FK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff