Bodo/Glimt 3–1 Zorya Luhansk: Result & Stats

Bodo/Glimt

FT

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Zorya Luhansk

A. Pellegrino 60'

O. Solbakken 49'

U. Saltnes 48'

A. Gromov 90'

9/16/2021

UEFA Europa Conference League · Group Stage - 1Aspmyra Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Bodo/Glimt76%

×Draw16%

Zorya Luhansk9%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bodo/GlimtExpected goals in this matchZorya Luhansk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.45

0.70

Bodo/Glimt

2.45

Zorya Luhansk

0.70

Bodo/Glimt creates 250% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 7 away

2.47

creates per match

0.86

0.53

allows per match

2.43

creates per match

Bodo/Glimt

2.47

Zorya Luhansk

0.86

allows per match

Bodo/Glimt

0.53

Zorya Luhansk

2.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bodo/Glimt+0.00on par

Zorya Luhansk+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bodo/Glimt ↓

Zorya Luhansk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–17%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–011%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–07%

4–15%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Bodo/Glimt or draw

91%

Bodo/Glimt or Zorya Luhansk

84%

Draw or Zorya Luhansk

24%

Winning margin

Bodo/Glimt wins by 2+

53%

Zorya Luhansk wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Bodo/Glimt 1+ goals

91%

Bodo/Glimt 2+ goals

70%

Bodo/Glimt 3+ goals

44%

Zorya Luhansk 1+ goals

50%

Zorya Luhansk 2+ goals

16%

Zorya Luhansk 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Bodo/Glimt (draw refunded)

90%

Zorya Luhansk (draw refunded)

10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bodo/Glimt at home — creates 2.47, concedes 0.53 · 15 matches

Zorya Luhansk away — creates 0.86, concedes 2.43 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bodo/Glimt attack 2.47 + Zorya Luhansk defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 2.45

Zorya Luhansk attack 0.86 + Bodo/Glimt defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Bodo/Glimt scores more

76%

level

16%

Zorya Luhansk scores more

9%

Bodo/Glimt at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Bodo/Glimt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

O. Solbakken

Bodo/Glimt · F

8.0

Match Events

36'

Fredrik Andre Bjorkan

48'

U. Saltnes↳ P. Berg

49'

O. Solbakken↳ E. Botheim

52'

54'

59'

60'

67'

70'

70'

Cristian← A. Sayyadmanesh

79'

G. Koomson← A. Pellegrino

79'

M. Konradsen← F. Bjørkan

88'

J. Mvuka← O. Solbakken

89'

M. Høibråten← M. Lode

90+1'

R. Owusu← V. Kabaev

90+1'

D. Alefirenko← D. Khomchenovskyi

90+1'

M. Imerekov← L. Cvek

90'

A. Gromov↳ Cristian

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Bodo/GlimtZorya

Overview

53%Possession47%

16Total Shots11

4Corners2

8Fouls10

Shots

16Total Shots11

6On Target1

5Off Target8

5Blocked2

12Inside Box8

4Outside Box3

Passing

53%Possession47%

439Total Passes392

343Accurate Passes294

78%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

0Saves3

Discipline

8Fouls10

1Yellow Cards3

1Offsides0