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Bodo/Glimt vs Lillestrom — Eliteserien 2026

Bodo/Glimt
Bodo/Glimt
Preview
19:00
Lillestrom
Lillestrom
7/31/2026EliteserienEliteserien · Round 16Aspmyra Stadion
Big match
61%
Bodo/Glimt
model favours
61%20%19%

Bodo/Glimt are unbeaten in 9 straight

brightest fact of this match

2–1
likely score
65%
over 2.5 goals
61%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 16+ matches

Bodo/Glimt61%
×Draw20%
Lillestrom19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bodo/Glimt
2.19
Lillestrom
1.15

Bodo/Glimt creates 90% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 16 away

creates per match

Bodo/Glimt
2.65
Lillestrom
1.58

allows per match

Bodo/Glimt
0.72
Lillestrom
1.73

finishing

Bodo/Glimt+0.72scores more
Lillestrom-0.45scores less

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bodo/Glimt ↓

Lillestrom →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Bodo/Glimt or draw
81%
Bodo/Glimt or Lillestrom
80%
Draw or Lillestrom
39%

Winning margin

Bodo/Glimt wins by 2+
38%
Lillestrom wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Bodo/Glimt 1+ goals
89%
Bodo/Glimt 2+ goals
64%
Bodo/Glimt 3+ goals
37%
Lillestrom 1+ goals
68%
Lillestrom 2+ goals
32%
Lillestrom 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Bodo/Glimt (draw refunded)
76%
Lillestrom (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bodo/Glimt at home — creates 2.65, concedes 0.72 · 27 matches

Lillestrom away — creates 1.58, concedes 1.73 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bodo/Glimt attack 2.65 + Lillestrom defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 2.19

Lillestrom attack 1.58 + Bodo/Glimt defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Bodo/Glimt scores more
61%
level
20%
Lillestrom scores more
19%

Bodo/Glimt at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Bodo/Glimt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Bodo/Glimt have won 5 in a row
  • Bodo/Glimt score first in 74% of matches
  • Bodo/Glimt have scored in 9 games running
  • Top-of-the-table clash — Bodo/Glimt 3 vs Lillestrom 4
  • 44% of Lillestrom’s goals come after the 75th minute
  • Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Bodo/Glimt
Possession-dominant
Lillestrom
Balanced
64%Possession52%
88%Pass accuracy79%
16.6Shots12.6
2.30xGBiggest gap1.65
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Bodo/GlimtLillestrom

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

8
Bodo/Glimt
2
Draws
0
Lillestrom
Avg goals: 3.9BTTS: 70%
2–05–25–03–12–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Bodo/Glimt
WWWWW
Lillestrom
LWWWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Bodo/Glimt vs Lillestrom — Match Preview

Bodo/Glimt face Lillestrom on July 31, 2026 in this Eliteserien fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Bodo/Glimt host Lillestrom at Aspmyra Stadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.