Bodo/Glimt 3–0 Ham-Kam: Result & Stats

Bodo/Glimt

FT

3 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Ham-Kam

H. Evjen 68'

K. Høgh 64', 54'

9/13/2024

Eliteserien · Round 22Aspmyra Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 17+ matches

Bodo/Glimt66%

×Draw19%

Ham-Kam14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bodo/GlimtExpected goals in this matchHam-Kam

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.21

0.92

Bodo/Glimt

2.21

Ham-Kam

0.92

Bodo/Glimt creates 140% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 17 away

2.59

creates per match

1.09

0.75

allows per match

1.84

creates per match

Bodo/Glimt

2.59

Ham-Kam

1.09

allows per match

Bodo/Glimt

0.75

Ham-Kam

1.84

+0.65scores more than expected

finishing

-0.38scores less than expected

finishing

Bodo/Glimt+0.65scores more

Ham-Kam-0.38scores less

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bodo/Glimt ↓

Ham-Kam →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Bodo/Glimt or draw

86%

Bodo/Glimt or Ham-Kam

81%

Draw or Ham-Kam

34%

Winning margin

Bodo/Glimt wins by 2+

43%

Ham-Kam wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Bodo/Glimt 1+ goals

89%

Bodo/Glimt 2+ goals

65%

Bodo/Glimt 3+ goals

38%

Ham-Kam 1+ goals

60%

Ham-Kam 2+ goals

23%

Ham-Kam 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Bodo/Glimt (draw refunded)

82%

Ham-Kam (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bodo/Glimt at home — creates 2.59, concedes 0.75 · 25 matches

Ham-Kam away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.84 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bodo/Glimt attack 2.59 + Ham-Kam defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 2.21

Ham-Kam attack 1.09 + Bodo/Glimt defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Bodo/Glimt scores more

66%

level

19%

Ham-Kam scores more

14%

Bodo/Glimt at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Bodo/Glimt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

26

H. Evjen

Bodo/Glimt · M

8.9

Match Events

15'

Isak Dybvik MäättäGoal cancelled

27'

Mohamed Ofkir

54'

K. Høgh↳ J. Hauge

64'

K. Høgh↳ H. Evjen

68'

H. Evjen↳ S. Fet

69'

P. Zinckernagel← J. Hauge

69'

U. Saltnes← H. Evjen

73'

A. Helmersen← K. Høgh

75'

A. Ødegård← M. Johnsgård

75'

M. Mawa← M. Ofkir

75'

W. Kurtović← T. Sørås

81'

81'

83'

84'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Bodo/GlimtHam-Kam

Overview

70%Possession30%

13Total Shots9

1.66Expected Goals (xG)0.48

8Corners6

7Fouls8

Shots

13Total Shots9

6On Target2

5Off Target4

2Blocked3

9Inside Box8

4Outside Box1

Passing

70%Possession30%

649Total Passes268

600Accurate Passes203

92%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

7Fouls8

0Yellow Cards1

2Offsides0

Match Recap: Bodo/Glimt vs Ham-Kam

Bodo/Glimt beat Ham-Kam 3-0 in Eliteserien on September 13, 2024.

Goals: K. Høgh (54', 64'), H. Evjen (68').

Bodo/Glimt controlled possession (70%) and registered 13 shots to 9.

The match was played at Aspmyra Stadion in Bodø.

Bodo/Glimt vs Ham-Kam — Eliteserien 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Bodo/Glimt vs Ham-Kam