Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Boden vs Dalkurd FF — Ettan - Norra 2019

Boden
Boden
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Dalkurd FF
Dalkurd FF
10/1/2023Ettan - NorraEttan - Norra · Norra - 24Bodens Energi Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Boden29%
×Draw24%
Dalkurd FF47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Boden
1.25
Dalkurd FF
1.65

Dalkurd FF creates 32% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 30 away

creates per match

Boden
1.13
Dalkurd FF
1.50

allows per match

Boden
1.80
Dalkurd FF
1.37

finishing

Boden+0.00on par
Dalkurd FF+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Boden ↓

Dalkurd FF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Boden or draw
53%
Boden or Dalkurd FF
76%
Draw or Dalkurd FF
71%

Winning margin

Boden wins by 2+
12%
Dalkurd FF wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Boden 1+ goals
71%
Boden 2+ goals
36%
Boden 3+ goals
13%
Dalkurd FF 1+ goals
81%
Dalkurd FF 2+ goals
49%
Dalkurd FF 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Boden (draw refunded)
38%
Dalkurd FF (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Boden at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.80 · 30 matches

Dalkurd FF away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.37 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Boden attack 1.13 + Dalkurd FF defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.25

Dalkurd FF attack 1.50 + Boden defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Boden scores more
29%
level
24%
Dalkurd FF scores more
47%

Dalkurd FF at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Dalkurd FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ettan - Norra: Boden 1–1 Dalkurd FF

Boden and Dalkurd FF drew 1-1 in Ettan - Norra on October 1, 2023.

The match was played at Bodens Energi Arena in Boden.