Boden City 1–5 Piteå: Result & Stats

Boden City

FT

1 – 5

HT: 1 – 0

Piteå

F. Bascunana 19'

Unknown 82' (OG), 77' (OG)

F. Johansson 65'

B. Brooks 55'

H. Millbert 54'

4/22/2025

Division 2 - Norrland · Norrland - 2Björknäsvallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Boden City25%

×Draw22%

Piteå53%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Boden CityExpected goals in this matchPiteå

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.99

Boden City

1.32

Piteå

1.99

Piteå creates 51% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 31 away

1.17

creates per match

2.23

1.75

allows per match

1.48

creates per match

Boden City

1.17

Piteå

2.23

allows per match

Boden City

1.75

Piteå

1.48

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Boden City+0.00on par

Piteå+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Boden City ↓

Piteå →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–27%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Boden City or draw

47%

Boden City or Piteå

78%

Draw or Piteå

75%

Winning margin

Boden City wins by 2+

11%

Piteå wins by 2+

31%

Team goals

Boden City 1+ goals

73%

Boden City 2+ goals

38%

Boden City 3+ goals

15%

Piteå 1+ goals

86%

Piteå 2+ goals

59%

Piteå 3+ goals

32%

Draw no bet

Boden City (draw refunded)

32%

Piteå (draw refunded)

68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Boden City at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.75 · 12 matches

Piteå away — creates 2.23, concedes 1.48 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Boden City attack 1.17 + Piteå defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.32

Piteå attack 2.23 + Boden City defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Boden City scores more

25%

level

22%

Piteå scores more

53%

Piteå at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Piteå will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'

54'

55'

65'

77'

Own goal

82'

Own goal

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff