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Boden City vs IFK Luleå — Division 2 - Norrland 2019

Boden City
Boden City
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
IFK Luleå
IFK Luleå
H. Bergman 11'
M. Dawlat 8'
5/22/2025Division 2 - NorrlandDivision 2 - Norrland · Norrland - 8Björknäsvallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Boden City25%
×Draw23%
IFK Luleå52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Boden City
1.19
IFK Luleå
1.83

IFK Luleå creates 54% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 70 away

creates per match

Boden City
1.17
IFK Luleå
1.91

allows per match

Boden City
1.75
IFK Luleå
1.20

finishing

Boden City+0.00on par
IFK Luleå+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Boden City ↓

IFK Luleå →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Boden City or draw
48%
Boden City or IFK Luleå
77%
Draw or IFK Luleå
75%

Winning margin

Boden City wins by 2+
10%
IFK Luleå wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Boden City 1+ goals
70%
Boden City 2+ goals
33%
Boden City 3+ goals
12%
IFK Luleå 1+ goals
84%
IFK Luleå 2+ goals
54%
IFK Luleå 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Boden City (draw refunded)
32%
IFK Luleå (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Boden City at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.75 · 12 matches

IFK Luleå away — creates 1.91, concedes 1.20 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Boden City attack 1.17 + IFK Luleå defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.19

IFK Luleå attack 1.91 + Boden City defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Boden City scores more
25%
level
23%
IFK Luleå scores more
52%

IFK Luleå at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "IFK Luleå will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'
M. Dawlat
11'
H. Bergman

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Boden City vs IFK Luleå

IFK Luleå beat Boden City 2-0 in Division 2 - Norrland on May 22, 2025.

Goals: M. Dawlat (8'), H. Bergman (11').

The match was played at Björknäsvallen in Boden.