Boden City 3–2 Bergnäsets: Result & Stats

Boden City

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Bergnäsets

9/15/2025

Division 2 - Norrland · Norrland - Promotion Round - 8

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Boden City38%

×Draw24%

Bergnäsets38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Boden CityExpected goals in this matchBergnäsets

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.54

Boden City

1.56

Bergnäsets

1.54

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 12 home / 65 away

1.17

creates per match

1.32

1.75

allows per match

1.95

creates per match

Boden City

1.17

Bergnäsets

1.32

allows per match

Boden City

1.75

Bergnäsets

1.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Boden City+0.00on par

Bergnäsets+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Boden City ↓

Bergnäsets →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Boden City or draw

62%

Boden City or Bergnäsets

76%

Draw or Bergnäsets

62%

Winning margin

Boden City wins by 2+

19%

Bergnäsets wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Boden City 1+ goals

79%

Boden City 2+ goals

46%

Boden City 3+ goals

21%

Bergnäsets 1+ goals

79%

Bergnäsets 2+ goals

45%

Bergnäsets 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Boden City (draw refunded)

51%

Bergnäsets (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Boden City at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.75 · 12 matches

Bergnäsets away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.95 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Boden City attack 1.17 + Bergnäsets defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.56

Bergnäsets attack 1.32 + Boden City defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Boden City scores more

38%

level

24%

Bergnäsets scores more

38%

Boden City at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Boden City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff