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Bodø / Glimt W vs Øvrevoll Hosle W — 1. Division Women 2022

Bodø / Glimt W
Bodø / Glimt W
FT
3 – 2
Øvrevoll Hosle W
Øvrevoll Hosle W
3/17/20241. Division Women1. Division Women · Round 1Aspmyra Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Bodø / Glimt W57%
×Draw21%
Øvrevoll Hosle W22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bodø / Glimt W
2.15
Øvrevoll Hosle W
1.27

Bodø / Glimt W creates 69% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 37 away

creates per match

Bodø / Glimt W
2.08
Øvrevoll Hosle W
1.54

allows per match

Bodø / Glimt W
1.00
Øvrevoll Hosle W
2.22

finishing

Bodø / Glimt W+0.00on par
Øvrevoll Hosle W+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bodø / Glimt W ↓

Øvrevoll Hosle W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Bodø / Glimt W or draw
78%
Bodø / Glimt W or Øvrevoll Hosle W
79%
Draw or Øvrevoll Hosle W
43%

Winning margin

Bodø / Glimt W wins by 2+
35%
Øvrevoll Hosle W wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Bodø / Glimt W 1+ goals
88%
Bodø / Glimt W 2+ goals
63%
Bodø / Glimt W 3+ goals
36%
Øvrevoll Hosle W 1+ goals
72%
Øvrevoll Hosle W 2+ goals
36%
Øvrevoll Hosle W 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Bodø / Glimt W (draw refunded)
72%
Øvrevoll Hosle W (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bodø / Glimt W at home — creates 2.08, concedes 1.00 · 12 matches

Øvrevoll Hosle W away — creates 1.54, concedes 2.22 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bodø / Glimt W attack 2.08 + Øvrevoll Hosle W defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 2.15

Øvrevoll Hosle W attack 1.54 + Bodø / Glimt W defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Bodø / Glimt W scores more
57%
level
21%
Øvrevoll Hosle W scores more
22%

Bodø / Glimt W at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Bodø / Glimt W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Division Women: Bodø / Glimt W 3–2 Øvrevoll Hosle W

Bodø / Glimt W beat Øvrevoll Hosle W 3-2 in 1. Division Women on March 17, 2024.

The match was played at Aspmyra Stadion in Bodø.