Bodø / Glimt W 2–0 TIL 2020 W: Result & Stats

Bodø / Glimt W

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

TIL 2020 W

5/12/2024

1. Division Women · Round 7Aspmyra Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Bodø / Glimt W48%

×Draw23%

TIL 2020 W29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bodø / Glimt WExpected goals in this matchTIL 2020 W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

1.31

Bodø / Glimt W

1.75

TIL 2020 W

1.31

Bodø / Glimt W creates 34% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 49 away

2.08

creates per match

1.61

1.00

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Bodø / Glimt W

2.08

TIL 2020 W

1.61

allows per match

Bodø / Glimt W

1.00

TIL 2020 W

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bodø / Glimt W+0.00on par

TIL 2020 W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bodø / Glimt W ↓

TIL 2020 W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Bodø / Glimt W or draw

71%

Bodø / Glimt W or TIL 2020 W

77%

Draw or TIL 2020 W

52%

Winning margin

Bodø / Glimt W wins by 2+

26%

TIL 2020 W wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Bodø / Glimt W 1+ goals

83%

Bodø / Glimt W 2+ goals

52%

Bodø / Glimt W 3+ goals

25%

TIL 2020 W 1+ goals

73%

TIL 2020 W 2+ goals

38%

TIL 2020 W 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Bodø / Glimt W (draw refunded)

62%

TIL 2020 W (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bodø / Glimt W at home — creates 2.08, concedes 1.00 · 12 matches

TIL 2020 W away — creates 1.61, concedes 1.43 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bodø / Glimt W attack 2.08 + TIL 2020 W defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.75

TIL 2020 W attack 1.61 + Bodø / Glimt W defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Bodø / Glimt W scores more

48%

level

23%

TIL 2020 W scores more

29%

Bodø / Glimt W at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Bodø / Glimt W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff