Bodø / Glimt W 0–4 Stabæk W: Result & Stats

Bodø / Glimt W

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 3

Stabæk W

5/3/2026

Toppserien · Round 5Aspmyra Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Bodø / Glimt W22%

×Draw22%

Stabæk W55%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bodø / Glimt WExpected goals in this matchStabæk W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.12

1.90

Bodø / Glimt W

1.12

Stabæk W

1.90

Stabæk W creates 70% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 68 away

0.65

creates per match

1.16

2.65

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Bodø / Glimt W

0.65

Stabæk W

1.16

allows per match

Bodø / Glimt W

2.65

Stabæk W

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bodø / Glimt W+0.00on par

Stabæk W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bodø / Glimt W ↓

Stabæk W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–19%

0–29%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Bodø / Glimt W or draw

45%

Bodø / Glimt W or Stabæk W

78%

Draw or Stabæk W

78%

Winning margin

Bodø / Glimt W wins by 2+

8%

Stabæk W wins by 2+

32%

Team goals

Bodø / Glimt W 1+ goals

67%

Bodø / Glimt W 2+ goals

31%

Bodø / Glimt W 3+ goals

10%

Stabæk W 1+ goals

85%

Stabæk W 2+ goals

56%

Stabæk W 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

Bodø / Glimt W (draw refunded)

29%

Stabæk W (draw refunded)

71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bodø / Glimt W at home — creates 0.65, concedes 2.65 · 17 matches

Stabæk W away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.59 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bodø / Glimt W attack 0.65 + Stabæk W defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.12

Stabæk W attack 1.16 + Bodø / Glimt W defence 2.65 → ÷2 → 1.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Bodø / Glimt W scores more

22%

level

22%

Stabæk W scores more

55%

Stabæk W at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Stabæk W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff