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Bodø / Glimt W vs LSK Kvinner W — Toppserien 2021

Bodø / Glimt W
Bodø / Glimt W
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
LSK Kvinner W
LSK Kvinner W
4/16/2025ToppserienToppserien · Round 4Aspmyra Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Bodø / Glimt W17%
×Draw20%
LSK Kvinner W63%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bodø / Glimt W
1.00
LSK Kvinner W
2.15

LSK Kvinner W creates 115% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 65 away

creates per match

Bodø / Glimt W
0.65
LSK Kvinner W
1.65

allows per match

Bodø / Glimt W
2.65
LSK Kvinner W
1.34

finishing

Bodø / Glimt W+0.00on par
LSK Kvinner W+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bodø / Glimt W ↓

LSK Kvinner W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–19%
0–210%
0–37%
0–44%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–25%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Bodø / Glimt W or draw
37%
Bodø / Glimt W or LSK Kvinner W
80%
Draw or LSK Kvinner W
83%

Winning margin

Bodø / Glimt W wins by 2+
6%
LSK Kvinner W wins by 2+
40%

Team goals

Bodø / Glimt W 1+ goals
63%
Bodø / Glimt W 2+ goals
26%
Bodø / Glimt W 3+ goals
8%
LSK Kvinner W 1+ goals
88%
LSK Kvinner W 2+ goals
63%
LSK Kvinner W 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

Bodø / Glimt W (draw refunded)
21%
LSK Kvinner W (draw refunded)
79%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bodø / Glimt W at home — creates 0.65, concedes 2.65 · 17 matches

LSK Kvinner W away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.34 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bodø / Glimt W attack 0.65 + LSK Kvinner W defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.00

LSK Kvinner W attack 1.65 + Bodø / Glimt W defence 2.65 → ÷2 → 2.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Bodø / Glimt W scores more
17%
level
20%
LSK Kvinner W scores more
63%

LSK Kvinner W at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "LSK Kvinner W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bodø / Glimt W vs LSK Kvinner W

LSK Kvinner W beat Bodø / Glimt W 4-0 in Toppserien on April 16, 2025.

The match was played at Aspmyra Stadion.