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Bodø / Glimt W vs Fortuna Ålesund W — 1. Division Women 2022

Bodø / Glimt W
Bodø / Glimt W
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Fortuna Ålesund W
Fortuna Ålesund W
8/11/20241. Division Women1. Division Women · Round 14Aspmyra Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Bodø / Glimt W45%
×Draw24%
Fortuna Ålesund W31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bodø / Glimt W
1.67
Fortuna Ålesund W
1.33

Bodø / Glimt W creates 26% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 48 away

creates per match

Bodø / Glimt W
2.08
Fortuna Ålesund W
1.67

allows per match

Bodø / Glimt W
1.00
Fortuna Ålesund W
1.25

finishing

Bodø / Glimt W+0.00on par
Fortuna Ålesund W+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bodø / Glimt W ↓

Fortuna Ålesund W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Bodø / Glimt W or draw
69%
Bodø / Glimt W or Fortuna Ålesund W
76%
Draw or Fortuna Ålesund W
55%

Winning margin

Bodø / Glimt W wins by 2+
24%
Fortuna Ålesund W wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Bodø / Glimt W 1+ goals
81%
Bodø / Glimt W 2+ goals
50%
Bodø / Glimt W 3+ goals
23%
Fortuna Ålesund W 1+ goals
74%
Fortuna Ålesund W 2+ goals
38%
Fortuna Ålesund W 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Bodø / Glimt W (draw refunded)
60%
Fortuna Ålesund W (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bodø / Glimt W at home — creates 2.08, concedes 1.00 · 12 matches

Fortuna Ålesund W away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.25 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bodø / Glimt W attack 2.08 + Fortuna Ålesund W defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.67

Fortuna Ålesund W attack 1.67 + Bodø / Glimt W defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Bodø / Glimt W scores more
45%
level
24%
Fortuna Ålesund W scores more
31%

Bodø / Glimt W at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Bodø / Glimt W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Division Women: Bodø / Glimt W 1–0 Fortuna Ålesund W

Bodø / Glimt W beat Fortuna Ålesund W 1-0 in 1. Division Women on August 11, 2024.

The match was played at Aspmyra Stadion in Bodø.