Bodø / Glimt II 1–2 Trønder-Lyn: Result & Stats

Bodø / Glimt II

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Trønder-Lyn

9/3/2023

3. Division - Girone 5 · Group 5 - 18Aspmyra Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Bodø / Glimt II62%

×Draw17%

Trønder-Lyn21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bodø / Glimt IIExpected goals in this matchTrønder-Lyn

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.96

1.72

Bodø / Glimt II

2.96

Trønder-Lyn

1.72

Bodø / Glimt II creates 72% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 13 away

3.00

creates per match

1.85

1.58

allows per match

2.92

creates per match

Bodø / Glimt II

3.00

Trønder-Lyn

1.85

allows per match

Bodø / Glimt II

1.58

Trønder-Lyn

2.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bodø / Glimt II+0.00on par

Trønder-Lyn+0.00on par

Total goals

Over84
Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes78
No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bodø / Glimt II ↓

Trønder-Lyn →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–21%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–03%

1–15%

1–24%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–17%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–03%

4–15%

4–25%

4–33%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

95%5%2.5

84%16%3.5

68%32%4.5

48%52%

Double chance

Bodø / Glimt II or draw

79%

Bodø / Glimt II or Trønder-Lyn

83%

Draw or Trønder-Lyn

38%

Winning margin

Bodø / Glimt II wins by 2+

42%

Trønder-Lyn wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Bodø / Glimt II 1+ goals

95%

Bodø / Glimt II 2+ goals

79%

Bodø / Glimt II 3+ goals

55%

Trønder-Lyn 1+ goals

82%

Trønder-Lyn 2+ goals

51%

Trønder-Lyn 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Bodø / Glimt II (draw refunded)

75%

Trønder-Lyn (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

73%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bodø / Glimt II at home — creates 3.00, concedes 1.58 · 26 matches

Trønder-Lyn away — creates 1.85, concedes 2.92 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bodø / Glimt II attack 3.00 + Trønder-Lyn defence 2.92 → ÷2 → 2.96

Trønder-Lyn attack 1.85 + Bodø / Glimt II defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Bodø / Glimt II scores more

62%

level

17%

Trønder-Lyn scores more

21%

Bodø / Glimt II at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Bodø / Glimt II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff