Bodø / Glimt II 1–0 Tiller: Result & Stats

Bodø / Glimt II

FT

1 – 0

Tiller

4/23/2023

3. Division - Girone 5 · Group 5 - 3Nordlandshallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Bodø / Glimt II55%

×Draw19%

Tiller26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bodø / Glimt IIExpected goals in this matchTiller

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.61

1.79

Bodø / Glimt II

2.61

Tiller

1.79

Bodø / Glimt II creates 46% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 32 away

3.00

creates per match

2.00

1.58

allows per match

2.22

creates per match

Bodø / Glimt II

3.00

Tiller

2.00

allows per match

Bodø / Glimt II

1.58

Tiller

2.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bodø / Glimt II+0.00on par

Tiller+0.00on par

Total goals

Over81
Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes77
No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bodø / Glimt II ↓

Tiller →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–03%

1–16%

1–25%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–17%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

81%19%3.5

63%37%4.5

44%56%

Double chance

Bodø / Glimt II or draw

74%

Bodø / Glimt II or Tiller

81%

Draw or Tiller

45%

Winning margin

Bodø / Glimt II wins by 2+

35%

Tiller wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Bodø / Glimt II 1+ goals

93%

Bodø / Glimt II 2+ goals

73%

Bodø / Glimt II 3+ goals

47%

Tiller 1+ goals

83%

Tiller 2+ goals

53%

Tiller 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Bodø / Glimt II (draw refunded)

68%

Tiller (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

71%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bodø / Glimt II at home — creates 3.00, concedes 1.58 · 26 matches

Tiller away — creates 2.00, concedes 2.22 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bodø / Glimt II attack 3.00 + Tiller defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 2.61

Tiller attack 2.00 + Bodø / Glimt II defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Bodø / Glimt II scores more

55%

level

19%

Tiller scores more

26%

Bodø / Glimt II at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Bodø / Glimt II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff