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Bodø / Glimt II vs Steinkjer — 3. Division - Girone 5 2020

Bodø / Glimt II
Bodø / Glimt II
FT
8 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Steinkjer
Steinkjer
10/22/20233. Division - Girone 53. Division - Girone 5 · Group 5 - 25Aspmyra Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Bodø / Glimt II70%
×Draw15%
Steinkjer15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bodø / Glimt II
3.29
Steinkjer
1.54

Bodø / Glimt II creates 114% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 26 away

creates per match

Bodø / Glimt II
3.00
Steinkjer
1.50

allows per match

Bodø / Glimt II
1.58
Steinkjer
3.58

finishing

Bodø / Glimt II+0.00on par
Steinkjer+0.00on par

Total goals

85%Over
  • Over85
  • Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bodø / Glimt II ↓

Steinkjer →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–14%
1–23%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–18%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–16%
4–25%
4–33%
4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (8%) · grid covers 79% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
85%15%3.5
69%31%4.5
50%50%

Double chance

Bodø / Glimt II or draw
85%
Bodø / Glimt II or Steinkjer
85%
Draw or Steinkjer
30%

Winning margin

Bodø / Glimt II wins by 2+
51%
Steinkjer wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Bodø / Glimt II 1+ goals
96%
Bodø / Glimt II 2+ goals
83%
Bodø / Glimt II 3+ goals
62%
Steinkjer 1+ goals
79%
Steinkjer 2+ goals
45%
Steinkjer 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Bodø / Glimt II (draw refunded)
82%
Steinkjer (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
71%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bodø / Glimt II at home — creates 3.00, concedes 1.58 · 26 matches

Steinkjer away — creates 1.50, concedes 3.58 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bodø / Glimt II attack 3.00 + Steinkjer defence 3.58 → ÷2 → 3.29

Steinkjer attack 1.50 + Bodø / Glimt II defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Bodø / Glimt II scores more
70%
level
15%
Steinkjer scores more
15%

Bodø / Glimt II at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Bodø / Glimt II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 5: Bodø / Glimt II 8–0 Steinkjer

Bodø / Glimt II beat Steinkjer 8-0 in 3. Division - Girone 5 on October 22, 2023.

The match was played at Aspmyra Stadion in Bodø.