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Bodø / Glimt II vs Skjervøy — 3. Division - Girone 6 2020

Bodø / Glimt II
Bodø / Glimt II
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Skjervøy
Skjervøy
5/26/20243. Division - Girone 63. Division - Girone 6 · Group 6 - 8Aspmyra Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Bodø / Glimt II37%
×Draw20%
Skjervøy42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bodø / Glimt II
2.04
Skjervøy
2.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 46 away

creates per match

Bodø / Glimt II
1.58
Skjervøy
1.65

allows per match

Bodø / Glimt II
2.68
Skjervøy
2.50

finishing

Bodø / Glimt II+0.00on par
Skjervøy+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

77%Yes
  • Yes77
  • No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bodø / Glimt II ↓

Skjervøy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–27%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–25%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (7%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
60%40%4.5
41%59%

Double chance

Bodø / Glimt II or draw
58%
Bodø / Glimt II or Skjervøy
80%
Draw or Skjervøy
63%

Winning margin

Bodø / Glimt II wins by 2+
20%
Skjervøy wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Bodø / Glimt II 1+ goals
87%
Bodø / Glimt II 2+ goals
60%
Bodø / Glimt II 3+ goals
33%
Skjervøy 1+ goals
89%
Skjervøy 2+ goals
64%
Skjervøy 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

Bodø / Glimt II (draw refunded)
47%
Skjervøy (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
70%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bodø / Glimt II at home — creates 1.58, concedes 2.68 · 19 matches

Skjervøy away — creates 1.65, concedes 2.50 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bodø / Glimt II attack 1.58 + Skjervøy defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.04

Skjervøy attack 1.65 + Bodø / Glimt II defence 2.68 → ÷2 → 2.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Bodø / Glimt II scores more
37%
level
20%
Skjervøy scores more
42%

Skjervøy at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Skjervøy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bodø / Glimt II vs Skjervøy

Skjervøy beat Bodø / Glimt II 3-1 in 3. Division - Girone 6 on May 26, 2024.

The match was played at Aspmyra Stadion in Bodø.