Bochum U19 5–0 RW Oberhausen U19: Result & Stats

Bochum U19

FT

5 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

RW Oberhausen U19

T. Özdemir 89', 67'

C. Minewitsch 39', 14', 4'

11/2/2019

U19 Bundesliga · Ovest - 10Nachwuchszentrum VfL Bochum

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Bochum U1960%

×Draw20%

RW Oberhausen U1920%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bochum U19Expected goals in this matchRW Oberhausen U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.29

1.27

Bochum U19

2.29

RW Oberhausen U19

1.27

Bochum U19 creates 80% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 51 away

2.44

creates per match

1.18

1.37

allows per match

2.14

creates per match

Bochum U19

2.44

RW Oberhausen U19

1.18

allows per match

Bochum U19

1.37

RW Oberhausen U19

2.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bochum U19+0.00on par

RW Oberhausen U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bochum U19 ↓

RW Oberhausen U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Bochum U19 or draw

80%

Bochum U19 or RW Oberhausen U19

80%

Draw or RW Oberhausen U19

40%

Winning margin

Bochum U19 wins by 2+

38%

RW Oberhausen U19 wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Bochum U19 1+ goals

90%

Bochum U19 2+ goals

66%

Bochum U19 3+ goals

40%

RW Oberhausen U19 1+ goals

72%

RW Oberhausen U19 2+ goals

36%

RW Oberhausen U19 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Bochum U19 (draw refunded)

75%

RW Oberhausen U19 (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bochum U19 at home — creates 2.44, concedes 1.37 · 70 matches

RW Oberhausen U19 away — creates 1.18, concedes 2.14 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bochum U19 attack 2.44 + RW Oberhausen U19 defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 2.29

RW Oberhausen U19 attack 1.18 + Bochum U19 defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Bochum U19 scores more

60%

level

20%

RW Oberhausen U19 scores more

20%

Bochum U19 at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Bochum U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

C. Minewitsch

14'

C. Minewitsch

39'

C. Minewitsch

50'

L. Geishauser← A. Marković

56'

E. Surmanski← E. Kücük

63'

B. Inan← M. Fleer

63'

S. Köse← J. Bachmann

67'

T. Özdemir

69'

J. Kyeremateng← H. Kree

75'

D. Mucic← C. Minewitsch

84'

M. Adamski← L. Hartwig

88'

I. Kaba← F. Püschel

89'

T. Özdemir

Bochum

RW

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽3

▼

▼

⚽2

Manager: M. Lust

69'▲J. Kyeremateng←▼H. Kree

75'▲D. Mucic←▼C. Minewitsch

84'▲M. Adamski←▼L. Hartwig

88'▲I. Kaba←▼F. Püschel

Bochum U19 substitutes

KyerematengMucicAdamskiKabaDautajJaworekMarpe

Manager: D. Pappas

50'▲L. Geishauser←▼A. Marković

56'▲E. Surmanski←▼E. Kücük

63'▲B. Inan←▼M. Fleer

63'▲S. Köse←▼J. Bachmann

RW Oberhausen U19 substitutes

GeishauserSurmanskiInanKöseBilginGercekPomorin

Match Recap: Bochum U19 vs RW Oberhausen U19

Bochum U19 beat RW Oberhausen U19 5-0 in U19 Bundesliga on November 2, 2019.

Goals: C. Minewitsch (4', 14', 39'), T. Özdemir (67', 89').

The match was played at Nachwuchszentrum VfL Bochum in Bochum.

Bochum U19 vs RW Oberhausen U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Bochum U19 vs RW Oberhausen U19