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Bochum U19 vs Paderborn U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Bochum U19
Bochum U19
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Paderborn U19
Paderborn U19
12/1/2024U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · 1st Group Stage - 13Nachwuchszentrum VfL Bochum

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Bochum U1946%
×Draw21%
Paderborn U1933%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bochum U19
2.07
Paderborn U19
1.75

Bochum U19 creates 18% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 58 away

creates per match

Bochum U19
2.36
Paderborn U19
2.12

allows per match

Bochum U19
1.39
Paderborn U19
1.78

finishing

Bochum U19+0.00on par
Paderborn U19+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bochum U19 ↓

Paderborn U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Bochum U19 or draw
67%
Bochum U19 or Paderborn U19
79%
Draw or Paderborn U19
54%

Winning margin

Bochum U19 wins by 2+
26%
Paderborn U19 wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Bochum U19 1+ goals
87%
Bochum U19 2+ goals
61%
Bochum U19 3+ goals
34%
Paderborn U19 1+ goals
83%
Paderborn U19 2+ goals
52%
Paderborn U19 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Bochum U19 (draw refunded)
58%
Paderborn U19 (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bochum U19 at home — creates 2.36, concedes 1.39 · 69 matches

Paderborn U19 away — creates 2.12, concedes 1.78 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bochum U19 attack 2.36 + Paderborn U19 defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 2.07

Paderborn U19 attack 2.12 + Bochum U19 defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Bochum U19 scores more
46%
level
21%
Paderborn U19 scores more
33%

Bochum U19 at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Bochum U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Bochum U19 3 – 1 Paderborn U19

Bochum U19 beat Paderborn U19 3-1 in U19 Bundesliga on December 1, 2024.

The match was played at Nachwuchszentrum VfL Bochum in Bochum.