Bochum U19 2–2 Osnabrück U19: Result & Stats

Bochum U19

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Osnabrück U19

D. Tschoumy Nana 53'

L. Dabrowski 34'

O. Fehring 71'

J. Eilers 7'

10/20/2024

U19 Bundesliga · 1st Group Stage - 9Nachwuchszentrum VfL Bochum

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Bochum U1960%

×Draw19%

Osnabrück U1920%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bochum U19Expected goals in this matchOsnabrück U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.40

1.34

Bochum U19

2.40

Osnabrück U19

1.34

Bochum U19 creates 79% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 54 away

2.36

creates per match

1.30

1.39

allows per match

2.43

creates per match

Bochum U19

2.36

Osnabrück U19

1.30

allows per match

Bochum U19

1.39

Osnabrück U19

2.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bochum U19+0.00on par

Osnabrück U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bochum U19 ↓

Osnabrück U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Bochum U19 or draw

80%

Bochum U19 or Osnabrück U19

81%

Draw or Osnabrück U19

40%

Winning margin

Bochum U19 wins by 2+

39%

Osnabrück U19 wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Bochum U19 1+ goals

91%

Bochum U19 2+ goals

69%

Bochum U19 3+ goals

42%

Osnabrück U19 1+ goals

74%

Osnabrück U19 2+ goals

39%

Osnabrück U19 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Bochum U19 (draw refunded)

75%

Osnabrück U19 (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bochum U19 at home — creates 2.36, concedes 1.39 · 69 matches

Osnabrück U19 away — creates 1.30, concedes 2.43 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bochum U19 attack 2.36 + Osnabrück U19 defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 2.40

Osnabrück U19 attack 1.30 + Bochum U19 defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Bochum U19 scores more

60%

level

19%

Osnabrück U19 scores more

20%

Bochum U19 at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Bochum U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'

J. Eilers

34'

L. Dabrowski

46'

L. Jashari← K. Kerbsties

53'

D. Tschoumy Nana

60'

C. Günes← T. Meyer

65'

O. Fehring← L. Bukvić

71'

O. Fehring

75'

E. Zucht← D. Kifel

75'

L. Uwandu← F. Langhammer

75'

T. Ganter← R. Shivani

81'

O. Ofori← A. Crimaldi

81'

T. Anubodem← K. Koscierski

88'

C. Akbas← J. Völkerding

Bochum

Osnabrück

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: D. Siebers

46'▲L. Jashari←▼K. Kerbsties

60'▲C. Günes←▼T. Meyer

81'▲O. Ofori←▼A. Crimaldi

81'▲T. Anubodem←▼K. Koscierski

Bochum U19 substitutes

JashariGünesOforiAnubodemHounsaIntvenBoltersdorf

Manager: A. Ukrow

65'▲O. Fehring←▼L. Bukvić

75'▲E. Zucht←▼D. Kifel

75'▲L. Uwandu←▼F. Langhammer

75'▲T. Ganter←▼R. Shivani

88'▲C. Akbas←▼J. Völkerding

Osnabrück U19 substitutes

FehringZuchtUwanduGanterAkbasScheuerSiemon