Bochum U19 2–0 Hilden U19: Result & Stats

Bochum U19

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Hilden U19

10/8/2022

U19 Bundesliga · West - 6Nachwuchszentrum VfL Bochum

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Bochum U1961%

×Draw19%

Hilden U1920%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bochum U19Expected goals in this matchHilden U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.46

1.36

Bochum U19

2.46

Hilden U19

1.36

Bochum U19 creates 81% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 9 away

2.36

creates per match

1.33

1.39

allows per match

2.56

creates per match

Bochum U19

2.36

Hilden U19

1.33

allows per match

Bochum U19

1.39

Hilden U19

2.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bochum U19+0.00on par

Hilden U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bochum U19 ↓

Hilden U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–17%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

52%48%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

Bochum U19 or draw

80%

Bochum U19 or Hilden U19

81%

Draw or Hilden U19

39%

Winning margin

Bochum U19 wins by 2+

40%

Hilden U19 wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Bochum U19 1+ goals

91%

Bochum U19 2+ goals

70%

Bochum U19 3+ goals

44%

Hilden U19 1+ goals

74%

Hilden U19 2+ goals

39%

Hilden U19 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Bochum U19 (draw refunded)

75%

Hilden U19 (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bochum U19 at home — creates 2.36, concedes 1.39 · 69 matches

Hilden U19 away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.56 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bochum U19 attack 2.36 + Hilden U19 defence 2.56 → ÷2 → 2.46

Hilden U19 attack 1.33 + Bochum U19 defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Bochum U19 scores more

61%

level

19%

Hilden U19 scores more

20%

Bochum U19 at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Bochum U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff