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Bochum U19 vs FSV Frankfurt U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Bochum U19
Bochum U19
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
FSV Frankfurt U19
FSV Frankfurt U19
P. Agyemang 44'
A. Gerth 25'
9/14/2025U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · Round 6Nachwuchszentrum VfL Bochum

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Bochum U1955%
×Draw21%
FSV Frankfurt U1924%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bochum U19
2.10
FSV Frankfurt U19
1.34

Bochum U19 creates 57% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 27 away

creates per match

Bochum U19
2.36
FSV Frankfurt U19
1.30

allows per match

Bochum U19
1.39
FSV Frankfurt U19
1.85

finishing

Bochum U19+0.00on par
FSV Frankfurt U19+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bochum U19 ↓

FSV Frankfurt U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Bochum U19 or draw
76%
Bochum U19 or FSV Frankfurt U19
79%
Draw or FSV Frankfurt U19
45%

Winning margin

Bochum U19 wins by 2+
33%
FSV Frankfurt U19 wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Bochum U19 1+ goals
88%
Bochum U19 2+ goals
62%
Bochum U19 3+ goals
35%
FSV Frankfurt U19 1+ goals
74%
FSV Frankfurt U19 2+ goals
39%
FSV Frankfurt U19 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Bochum U19 (draw refunded)
69%
FSV Frankfurt U19 (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bochum U19 at home — creates 2.36, concedes 1.39 · 69 matches

FSV Frankfurt U19 away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.85 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bochum U19 attack 2.36 + FSV Frankfurt U19 defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 2.10

FSV Frankfurt U19 attack 1.30 + Bochum U19 defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Bochum U19 scores more
55%
level
21%
FSV Frankfurt U19 scores more
24%

Bochum U19 at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Bochum U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

25'
A. Gerth
44'
P. Agyemang
Bochum
FSV
D. Siebers
Manager: D. Siebers
B. Yelken
Manager: B. Yelken

Bochum U19 2 – 0 FSV Frankfurt U19

Bochum U19 beat FSV Frankfurt U19 2-0 in U19 Bundesliga on September 14, 2025.

Goals: A. Gerth (25'), P. Agyemang (44').

The match was played at Nachwuchszentrum VfL Bochum in Bochum.