Bochum U19 1–0 Fortuna Köln U19: Result & Stats

Bochum U19

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Fortuna Köln U19

D. Wasilewski 35' (pen)

10/24/2021

U19 Bundesliga · West - 6Nachwuchszentrum VfL Bochum

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Bochum U1967%

×Draw18%

Fortuna Köln U1915%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bochum U19Expected goals in this matchFortuna Köln U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.45

1.09

Bochum U19

2.45

Fortuna Köln U19

1.09

Bochum U19 creates 125% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 28 away

2.40

creates per match

0.79

1.40

allows per match

2.50

creates per match

Bochum U19

2.40

Fortuna Köln U19

0.79

allows per match

Bochum U19

1.40

Fortuna Köln U19

2.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bochum U19+0.00on par

Fortuna Köln U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bochum U19 ↓

Fortuna Köln U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–18%

1–24%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

68%32%3.5

47%53%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Bochum U19 or draw

85%

Bochum U19 or Fortuna Köln U19

82%

Draw or Fortuna Köln U19

33%

Winning margin

Bochum U19 wins by 2+

45%

Fortuna Köln U19 wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Bochum U19 1+ goals

91%

Bochum U19 2+ goals

70%

Bochum U19 3+ goals

44%

Fortuna Köln U19 1+ goals

66%

Fortuna Köln U19 2+ goals

30%

Fortuna Köln U19 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Bochum U19 (draw refunded)

81%

Fortuna Köln U19 (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bochum U19 at home — creates 2.40, concedes 1.40 · 68 matches

Fortuna Köln U19 away — creates 0.79, concedes 2.50 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bochum U19 attack 2.40 + Fortuna Köln U19 defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.45

Fortuna Köln U19 attack 0.79 + Bochum U19 defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Bochum U19 scores more

67%

level

18%

Fortuna Köln U19 scores more

15%

Bochum U19 at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Bochum U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

35'

D. WasilewskiPenalty

46'

J. Francis← A. Sancarbarlaz

63'

L. Blazevic← T. Yardimci

73'

A. Golubytskij← Josue Santo

76'

W. Ezami← L. Lützeler

79'

L. Tersteeg← N. Böll

83'

M. Ojesanmi← O. Calis

87'

J. Hoffmann← F. San José

88'

L. Fava← L. Tasov

Bochum

Fortuna

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: H. Butscher

63'▲L. Blazevic←▼T. Yardimci

73'▲A. Golubytskij←▼Josue Santo

79'▲L. Tersteeg←▼N. Böll

88'▲L. Fava←▼L. Tasov

Bochum U19 substitutes

BlazevicGolubytskijTersteegFavaArgenzianoKotyrbaSchmitz

Manager: T. Westendorf

46'▲J. Francis←▼A. Sancarbarlaz

76'▲W. Ezami←▼L. Lützeler

83'▲M. Ojesanmi←▼O. Calis

87'▲J. Hoffmann←▼F. San José

Fortuna Köln U19 substitutes

FrancisEzamiOjesanmiHoffmannAltugSchüchterSatilmis

Match Recap: Bochum U19 vs Fortuna Köln U19

Bochum U19 beat Fortuna Köln U19 1-0 in U19 Bundesliga on October 24, 2021.

Goals: D. Wasilewski (35' pen).

The match was played at Nachwuchszentrum VfL Bochum in Bochum.

Bochum U19 vs Fortuna Köln U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Bochum U19 vs Fortuna Köln U19