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Bochum U19 vs Energie Cottbus U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Bochum U19
Bochum U19
FT
6 – 0
HT: 4 – 0
Energie Cottbus U19
Energie Cottbus U19
2/22/2026U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · Round 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Bochum U1957%
×Draw20%
Energie Cottbus U1923%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bochum U19
2.28
Energie Cottbus U19
1.42

Bochum U19 creates 61% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 55 away

creates per match

Bochum U19
2.36
Energie Cottbus U19
1.44

allows per match

Bochum U19
1.39
Energie Cottbus U19
2.20

finishing

Bochum U19+0.00on par
Energie Cottbus U19+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bochum U19 ↓

Energie Cottbus U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Bochum U19 or draw
77%
Bochum U19 or Energie Cottbus U19
80%
Draw or Energie Cottbus U19
43%

Winning margin

Bochum U19 wins by 2+
35%
Energie Cottbus U19 wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Bochum U19 1+ goals
90%
Bochum U19 2+ goals
66%
Bochum U19 3+ goals
39%
Energie Cottbus U19 1+ goals
76%
Energie Cottbus U19 2+ goals
41%
Energie Cottbus U19 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Bochum U19 (draw refunded)
71%
Energie Cottbus U19 (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bochum U19 at home — creates 2.36, concedes 1.39 · 69 matches

Energie Cottbus U19 away — creates 1.44, concedes 2.20 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bochum U19 attack 2.36 + Energie Cottbus U19 defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 2.28

Energie Cottbus U19 attack 1.44 + Bochum U19 defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Bochum U19 scores more
57%
level
20%
Energie Cottbus U19 scores more
23%

Bochum U19 at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Bochum U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Bochum
Energie
D. Siebers
Manager: D. Siebers
K. Alain
Manager: K. Alain

Match Recap: Bochum U19 vs Energie Cottbus U19

Bochum U19 beat Energie Cottbus U19 6-0 in U19 Bundesliga on February 22, 2026.