Bochum U19 2–3 Borussia M'bach U19: Result & Stats

Bochum U19

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Borussia M'bach U19

2/25/2024

U19 Bundesliga · West - 18Nachwuchszentrum VfL Bochum

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Bochum U1940%

×Draw22%

Borussia M'bach U1939%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bochum U19Expected goals in this matchBorussia M'bach U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.90

1.87

Bochum U19

1.90

Borussia M'bach U19

1.87

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 69 home / 71 away

2.36

creates per match

2.35

1.39

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Bochum U19

2.36

Borussia M'bach U19

2.35

allows per match

Bochum U19

1.39

Borussia M'bach U19

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bochum U19+0.00on par

Borussia M'bach U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bochum U19 ↓

Borussia M'bach U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

52%48%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Bochum U19 or draw

61%

Bochum U19 or Borussia M'bach U19

78%

Draw or Borussia M'bach U19

60%

Winning margin

Bochum U19 wins by 2+

21%

Borussia M'bach U19 wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Bochum U19 1+ goals

85%

Bochum U19 2+ goals

56%

Bochum U19 3+ goals

29%

Borussia M'bach U19 1+ goals

85%

Borussia M'bach U19 2+ goals

56%

Borussia M'bach U19 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

Bochum U19 (draw refunded)

51%

Borussia M'bach U19 (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bochum U19 at home — creates 2.36, concedes 1.39 · 69 matches

Borussia M'bach U19 away — creates 2.35, concedes 1.45 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bochum U19 attack 2.36 + Borussia M'bach U19 defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.90

Borussia M'bach U19 attack 2.35 + Bochum U19 defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Bochum U19 scores more

40%

level

22%

Borussia M'bach U19 scores more

39%

Bochum U19 at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Bochum U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff