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Bochum U19 vs Bayern München U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Bochum U19
Bochum U19
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Bayern München U19
Bayern München U19
5/6/2023U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · Special Stage - League A - 1Nachwuchszentrum VfL Bochum

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Bochum U1940%
×Draw21%
Bayern München U1940%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bochum U19
2.03
Bayern München U19
2.03

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 69 home / 70 away

creates per match

Bochum U19
2.36
Bayern München U19
2.67

allows per match

Bochum U19
1.39
Bayern München U19
1.70

finishing

Bochum U19+0.00on par
Bayern München U19+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bochum U19 ↓

Bayern München U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–27%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (7%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
57%43%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

Bochum U19 or draw
60%
Bochum U19 or Bayern München U19
79%
Draw or Bayern München U19
60%

Winning margin

Bochum U19 wins by 2+
22%
Bayern München U19 wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Bochum U19 1+ goals
87%
Bochum U19 2+ goals
60%
Bochum U19 3+ goals
33%
Bayern München U19 1+ goals
87%
Bayern München U19 2+ goals
60%
Bayern München U19 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Bochum U19 (draw refunded)
50%
Bayern München U19 (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
68%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bochum U19 at home — creates 2.36, concedes 1.39 · 69 matches

Bayern München U19 away — creates 2.67, concedes 1.70 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bochum U19 attack 2.36 + Bayern München U19 defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 2.03

Bayern München U19 attack 2.67 + Bochum U19 defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 2.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Bochum U19 scores more
40%
level
21%
Bayern München U19 scores more
40%

Bochum U19 at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Bochum U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Bochum U19 2 – 1 Bayern München U19

Bochum U19 beat Bayern München U19 2-1 in U19 Bundesliga on May 6, 2023.

The match was played at Nachwuchszentrum VfL Bochum in Bochum.